The latest paper by Federal Reserve researchers highly praises the role of prediction markets in economic analysis, specifically highlighting that the prediction platform Kalshi surpasses traditional methods in interest rate and CPI forecasts, and provides continuously updated probability distributions. The study notes that Kalshi's predictions are fully consistent with actual outcomes and emphasizes the unique value of retail investor participation in information aggregation.
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The latest paper by Federal Reserve researchers highly praises the role of prediction markets in economic analysis, specifically highlighting that the prediction platform Kalshi surpasses traditional methods in interest rate and CPI forecasts, and provides continuously updated probability distributions. The study notes that Kalshi's predictions are fully consistent with actual outcomes and emphasizes the unique value of retail investor participation in information aggregation.