Wheat Market News: Weekly Trading Session Sees Modest Pressure

rekt_but_resilient · 2026-02-19T22:15:07+00:00

The wheat market ended the week with lower prices across various contracts, despite strong export demand, with commitments up 18%. Upcoming USDA data is anticipated to adjust wheat stock estimates, reflecting a balance of export strength and price declines.

rekt_but_resilient

2026-02-19 22:15:07

Abstract generation in progress

The wheat complex closed the week on a softer note, with prices charting a downward path across multiple contract months. Chicago SRW futures posted fractional declines, while Kansas City HRW futures retreated 1 to 2 cents across most contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat proved more volatile, dropping 2 to 3 cents at midday trading.

Strong Export Demand Continues Despite Price Softness

Recent export activity has painted a brighter picture than price movements suggest. According to the latest data updated in early January, wheat export commitments—encompassing both shipped and unshipped sales—reached 20.228 million metric tons (MMT), representing an 18% increase compared to the same period last year. This level corresponds to 83% of the USDA’s seasonal estimate and aligns well with the average sales pace. Physical export shipments have also performed strongly, reaching 15.16 MMT, which translates to a 21% year-over-year jump. This marks 61% of the USDA’s full-season export projection, outpacing the historical 57% average shipping pace for this point in the season.

Futures Contract Pricing Summary

The wheat futures complex displayed varied weakness across different contract maturities and exchange listings:

CBOT March 26 Wheat: $5.17 1/2, down 1/2 cent
CBOT May 26 Wheat: $5.28 3/4, down 1/4 cent
KCBT March 26 Wheat: $5.28 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents
KCBT May 26 Wheat: $5.41 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents
MIAX March 26 Wheat: $5.68 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents
MIAX May 26 Wheat: $5.79 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents

Outlook: USDA Update on the Horizon

Market participants are preparing for the upcoming USDA WASDE report scheduled for Monday, which is expected to refine estimates for wheat ending stocks. Current projections suggest ending stocks may decline 5 million bushels to 896 million bushels. This weekly wheat news underscores the balancing act between supportive export demand and mild price pressure, setting the stage for the next round of policy guidance.

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