Cotton Market News: Prices Retreat as Export Activity Softens

Recent trading sessions have brought notable weakness to cotton markets, with prices declining amid softening global demand signals. The decline reflects broader pressures in the cotton sector, driven by a combination of weaker export performance and shifting macroeconomic conditions. Major market participants are closely monitoring both near-term price action and longer-term demand indicators.

Price Declines Across Major Contracts

Cotton prices opened recent trading with significant losses. The March 2026 contract closed at 63.48 cents per pound, down 25 points from the previous session and currently trading 24 points lower. The May 2026 contract posted losses as well, closing at 65.37 cents with a 9-point decline and currently sitting 28 points down. The July 2026 contract ended at 67.01 cents, also down 9 points and currently 27 points lower on the session.

These declines build on weakness seen in previous trading, where contracts fell between 9 and 25 points. The consistent pressure across multiple contract months suggests broad-based selling across the futures complex rather than isolated weakness in specific contract periods.

Export Data Points to Market Challenges

The most concerning development for cotton market sentiment comes from weakening export activity. Recent trade data revealed that cotton exports, excluding linters, reached 539,059 bales in November—marking a 4-year low for that month. This represents a significant contraction in overseas demand just as the cotton sector was hoping to see seasonal strength.

Weekly export sales data painted a similarly challenging picture. The week ending January 22 saw only 203,666 raw bales of cotton sold—a 3-week low that disappointed market observers. While sales were distributed globally, with Pakistan receiving 52,000 bales, Vietnam taking 45,600 bales, and China purchasing 38,800 bales, the total volume fell short of market expectations. Shipments during the same period reached 257,036 raw bales, the largest volume since May, but this failed to offset concerns about slowing new sales activity.

Global Market Dynamics Support Cotton Weakness

Beyond export concerns, global market conditions have also weighed on cotton sentiment. The US Dollar Index, which holds significant inverse correlation with commodity prices, traded at 96.010 down 0.264 points, yet remains in a relatively strong zone that can suppress dollar-denominated commodity demand from international buyers. Meanwhile, crude oil futures climbed to $65.49 per barrel, up $2.28 on the day, reflecting broader energy market dynamics that influence agricultural commodity sentiment.

International price indicators reinforced the bearish tone. The Cotlook A Index recovered slightly, gaining 85 points to settle at 74.15 cents on January 27, but the Adjusted World Price—which many traders view as a key reference—declined to 50.23 cents per pound, down 76 points from the previous week. These competing signals suggest market participants remain uncertain about the direction of global cotton sentiment.

ICE certified cotton stocks showed modest movement, rising just 3 bales to reach 8,600 bales on January 28, indicating relatively stable but low inventory levels in certified warehouses. The Wednesday online auction from The Seam reported sales at 59.34 cents per pound across 9,834 bales, providing market participants with additional price reference data for their trading decisions.

The combination of declining prices, weak export data, and mixed global signals suggests cotton market dynamics will remain under pressure until demand metrics show meaningful improvement. Market participants in the cotton trade should remain attentive to upcoming export sales data and global economic indicators that may influence international buyer appetite for US cotton supplies.