Is Exxon Mobil (XOM) Still Attractively Priced After A 41% One Year Rally?

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 11:09 AM GMT+9 7 min read

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If you are wondering whether Exxon Mobil's share price still reflects fair value, you are not alone, especially with the stock on many investors' watchlists right now.

The shares last closed at US$151.59, with returns of 5.5% over 7 days, 21.7% over 30 days, 23.6% year to date and 40.7% over the past year. This naturally raises questions about how much of the story is already priced in.

Recent headlines around Exxon Mobil have focused on its scale in global energy markets and its role in major long term oil and gas projects. This has kept attention on its ability to deploy capital at size. At the same time, ongoing discussion about the energy mix and long run demand for hydrocarbons has kept the stock in the middle of debates about risk, resilience and future cash flows.

On our checks, Exxon Mobil currently has a valuation score of 4/6, which reflects being assessed as undervalued on four of six metrics. Next we will look at what different valuation approaches say about that number before finishing with a more complete way to think about its value.

Exxon Mobil delivered 40.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry.

Approach 1: Exxon Mobil Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to a present value using a required rate of return.

For Exxon Mobil, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting from last twelve months free cash flow of about $27.8b. Analysts provide explicit free cash flow estimates for the coming years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates beyond those, including a projected free cash flow of $40.3b in 2030. All of these future cash flows are expressed in $ and then discounted to today to reflect timing and risk.

Pulling those projections together gives an estimated intrinsic value of $217.35 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $151.59, the model suggests Exxon Mobil trades at about a 30.3% discount to this DCF estimate, which indicates that the shares appear undervalued on this cash flow framework.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Exxon Mobil is undervalued by 30.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

XOM Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Exxon Mobil.

Story continues  

Approach 2: Exxon Mobil Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Exxon Mobil, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you pay for each share to the earnings that back it. Investors generally accept paying a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see lower risk, and a lower P/E when they see more uncertainty or slower expected progress.

Exxon Mobil currently trades on a P/E of 21.96x. That sits above the Oil and Gas industry average of 14.06x, but below the peer group average of 28.14x. On the surface, that suggests the market prices Exxon Mobil more highly than the sector overall, but not as highly as some closer peers.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Exxon Mobil is 29.27x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a “normal” P/E could look like after factoring in elements such as earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. Because it adjusts for these features, the Fair Ratio can offer a more tailored anchor than simple comparisons with peers or broad industry averages. With the current P/E below the Fair Ratio, the shares screen as undervalued on this earnings multiple framework.

Result: UNDERVALUED

NYSE:XOM P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Exxon Mobil Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. These let you attach a clear story about Exxon Mobil to the numbers you care about, such as your own fair value, revenue, earnings and margin assumptions. You can then link that story to a financial forecast, a fair value estimate and a simple comparison between fair value and the current price to help you decide whether the stock looks attractive to you.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and are designed to be quick to use. You can take an existing view or create your own, and they update automatically when new information such as earnings or news is added. This way, your fair value stays aligned to the latest data without you having to rebuild a model every time.

For example, one Exxon Mobil Narrative on the platform currently uses a fair value of US$132 per share, while another uses US$174 per share. Two investors working from the same public information therefore reach very different conclusions about what the business is worth, and those different Narratives can help each of them decide whether the current market price sits above or below their own line in the sand.

For Exxon Mobil however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Exxon Mobil Narratives:

Each one uses the same public data but lands in a different place on what the shares are worth right now. That gives you a quick way to see which version of the story feels closer to your own view.

🐂 Exxon Mobil Bull Case

Fair value in this narrative: US$174.00 per share

Implied discount vs last close of US$151.59: about 13% undervalued

Revenue growth assumption: 12.97%

Focuses heavily on Exxon Mobil’s 45% stake in Guyana’s Stabroek Block, with detailed production, cost and margin assumptions feeding into the valuation.

Frames Guyana, the Permian, buybacks and dividends as key contributors to shareholder returns, with inflation and costs modelled explicitly in the cash flow work.

Sees Exxon Mobil as a low cost, resilient operator that the author views as suitable for a long holding period with limited need to monitor the stock closely.

🐻 Exxon Mobil Bear Case

Fair value in this narrative: US$126.39 per share

Implied premium vs last close of US$151.59: about 20% overvalued

Revenue growth assumption: 2.94%

Assumes oil markets stay relatively tight and volatile, which supports large, well capitalised producers but still anchors Exxon Mobil on modest revenue growth.

Emphasises margins, cost savings and low cost assets like Guyana and the Permian, with share buybacks as a major driver of earnings per share rather than rapid top line expansion.

Flags risks around reserves replacement, future moves into renewables and potential changes in OPEC behaviour, which could affect both earnings and the P/E multiple the market is willing to pay.

Taken together, these Narratives bracket a fair value range from about US$126 to US$174, compared with the recent price of US$151.59. Your own view on Exxon Mobil will probably sit somewhere along that spectrum, depending on how you weigh Guyana, long term oil demand, margins and capital returns.

If you want to go deeper into either story, you can use these as starting points and then adjust the assumptions to match your own expectations about Exxon Mobil’s future.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Do you think there’s more to the story for Exxon Mobil? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:XOM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include XOM.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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