Does Thanksgiving Week Deliver for Stock Market Investors? A Decade of Data

Thanksgiving week represents a unique trading opportunity in the U.S. financial calendar. With the market closed on Thanksgiving Day (typically a Thursday in late November) and early closure on the following “Black Friday,” this abbreviated trading week creates distinct conditions for investors monitoring the stock market. Over the past decade, historical analysis reveals a compelling pattern: Thanksgiving week has consistently outperformed what its shorter duration would suggest when compared to the broader yearly performance of major indices.

Understanding Thanksgiving Week’s Role in the Stock Market Calendar

The U.S. stock market operates on a standard 52-week trading calendar, though some years contain 53 trading weeks. If Thanksgiving week performed in line with expectations, it should deliver returns proportional to its 1/52nd share of the annual performance. For instance, if the stock market gained 26% for the full year, an expected Thanksgiving week gain would hover around 0.5%.

However, data from the past decade tells a different story about Thanksgiving week’s actual performance relative to these baseline expectations.

A Decade of Stock Market Performance: The Thanksgiving Week Anomaly

Examining historical data from 2015 through 2024 reveals that Thanksgiving week significantly outperformed expected levels in seven out of ten years. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, demonstrated positive bias during this holiday-shortened week even during years marked by overall market weakness.

The track record breaks down as follows:

In 2024, both the S&P 500 (up 23.3% for the year) and the Nasdaq Composite (up 28.6%) saw Thanksgiving week exceed statistical expectations. The same pattern emerged in 2023, when the S&P 500 gained 24.2% and the Nasdaq surged 43.4% annually—Thanksgiving week punched above its weight in both cases.

The most dramatic outperformance occurred in years of broader market stress. During 2022’s significant decline (S&P 500 down 19.4%, Nasdaq down 33.1%), Thanksgiving week managed surprisingly strong results relative to the devastating full-year performance. Similar patterns appeared in 2018 and 2016, when Thanksgiving week provided positive surprises despite challenging annual conditions.

Only two instances in the decade showed Thanksgiving week lagging expectations: 2021, when market volatility intensified in late November and December preceding 2022’s downturn, and 2018, when market weakness accelerated through autumn. One additional year (2015) saw Thanksgiving week perform roughly in line with expectations.

Why Does Thanksgiving Week Show This Pattern?

While the data consistently demonstrates that Thanksgiving week tends to outperform relative to annual stock market performance, the underlying drivers of this phenomenon warrant consideration. Several structural and behavioral factors may contribute to this pattern:

Holiday positioning and investor sentiment: Thanksgiving week often coincides with year-end positioning decisions, retail investor holiday shopping plans, and potential rebalancing activity among institutional funds.

Compressed trading volume: The shortened week sometimes creates technical conditions favorable for momentum-driven moves, particularly if accumulated buying pressure builds before the extended weekend.

Historical context and cyclicality: Market behavior patterns show occasional seasonal strength around the November-December transition, influenced by tax planning considerations and calendar-driven allocations.

External economic factors: Thanksgiving week sometimes falls immediately after major economic data releases or Federal Reserve communications, creating distinct trading dynamics.

Thanksgiving Week Performance Across Market Conditions

The resilience of Thanksgiving week performance across diverse market environments stands out. During 2020’s COVID-19 market shock and subsequent recovery (S&P 500 up 16.3%, Nasdaq up 43.6%), Thanksgiving week significantly exceeded expected returns. Technology-heavy portions of the market—including companies like Nvidia (up 122%), Zoom Communications, and Pinterest—drove outsized gains that particularly benefited the Nasdaq during this period.

In contrast, 2019 (S&P 500 up 28.9%, Nasdaq up 35.2%) and 2017 (S&P 500 up 19.4%, Nasdaq up 28.2%) showed Thanksgiving week’s positive bias appearing even during strong overall market years. This suggests the phenomenon is not simply a reversal mechanism for weak years but rather a consistent pattern.

The 2021 experience proved instructive: despite that year’s strong annual performance (S&P 500 up 26.9%, Nasdaq up 21.4%), Thanksgiving week underperformed. This coincided with mounting market volatility as 2021 gave way to 2022, suggesting that when broader market turbulence intensifies during this period, the typical Thanksgiving week strength may not materialize.

Implications for Stock Market Investors

The decade-long analysis demonstrates that Thanksgiving week has delivered outperformance relative to annual stock market results in approximately 70% of years studied. This pattern holds regardless of whether the full year proved positive or negative for investors.

However, investors should approach this observation with appropriate caution. While the data suggests favorable conditions during Thanksgiving week, successfully timing market entry and exit around this week remains notoriously difficult in practice. The Motley Fool and other established investment advisory platforms explicitly caution against attempting market timing, despite the appeal of seasonal patterns.

For long-term buy-and-hold investors, Thanksgiving week’s historical overperformance offers interesting context but should not drive trading decisions. The transaction costs, tax implications, and behavioral risks of trying to capitalize on this pattern typically outweigh potential benefits.

Looking Forward: What Thanksgiving Week Data Suggests

The historical pattern observed across 2015-2024 provides a foundation for understanding Thanksgiving week’s potential in future years. As of early 2026, investors reflecting on the 2025 Thanksgiving week results and considering 2026’s prospects can reference this decade of documented outperformance.

The stock market’s longer-term historical average return—approximately 10% annually—provides a useful benchmark. Years significantly exceeding or falling short of this baseline help contextualize where Thanksgiving week’s performance ultimately lands within broader market narratives.

Conclusion: Understanding Thanksgiving Week in Context

The decade of data examining stock market behavior during Thanksgiving week reveals a consistent pattern: this holiday-shortened week has delivered results exceeding statistical expectations in the majority of years studied. Seven out of ten years saw Thanksgiving week outperform relative to full-year stock market performance, with only two years showing underperformance and one year aligning with expectations.

This pattern has emerged across varying market conditions—whether the stock market delivered strong gains, suffered significant losses, or experienced volatility. The consistency suggests structural or behavioral factors favorable to Thanksgiving week trading dynamics.

For investors, this historical context enriches understanding of thanksgiving week without providing a reliable basis for market timing decisions. Rather, recognizing Thanksgiving week’s typical resilience contextualizes this period within the broader stock market calendar, adding data-driven perspective to end-of-year investment planning.

Whether Thanksgiving week continues demonstrating outperformance in subsequent years remains an open question, but the past decade has provided compelling evidence of this market’s seasonal tendency.