Wheat Prices Come Under Pressure as Dollar Gains Strength

The wheat market turned decidedly softer during Friday’s trading session, as a significant 0.893 gain in the dollar index weighed on commodity prices across the board. Weakness spanned multiple wheat varieties, with wheat prices slipping across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis exchanges simultaneously.

Futures Markets Show Broad-Based Decline in Wheat Prices

Chicago SRW (Soft Red Winter) wheat futures posted losses of 3 to 4.25 cents during the session, though March contracts managed to retain a solid 8.5-cent weekly advance. Kansas City HRW (Hard Red Winter) futures declined 2 to 3 cents at the close, with March holdings maintaining a 4-cent weekly gain despite the session’s downside pressure. Minneapolis spring wheat futures fell 3 to 4 cents on the day, while March positions remained up 3.25 cents for the week. This pattern reflects underlying support from longer-dated positions even as near-term wheat prices retreated.

Fund Positioning Shifts Amid Recent Market Weakness

Latest Commitment of Traders data revealed important repositioning activity in wheat futures markets. Managed money participants covered shorts in Chicago wheat futures and options, reducing their net short position by 15,957 contracts to 94,743 contracts as of late January. In Kansas City wheat, speculative traders trimmed 2,689 contracts from their net short stance to 10,329 contracts. This covering activity suggests tactical adjustments as traders reassess market fundamentals amid the recent decline in wheat prices.

Export Sales Remain Resilient Despite Price Pressure

Global wheat demand appears to be holding firm despite recent weakness in wheat prices. Accumulated export sale commitments reached 21.595 million metric tons, representing an 18% lead versus the equivalent period last year. This pace aligns with 88% of USDA’s season forecast and matches the 89% average historical pace, indicating that underlying demand fundamentals remain supportive of the market’s longer-term direction.

Current Wheat Prices Across Major Contracts

The latest settlement prices for wheat across major U.S. exchanges show the extent of Friday’s decline:

• CBOT March wheat: $5.38, down 3.5 cents
• CBOT May wheat: $5.46, down 4.25 cents
• KCBT March wheat: $5.44.75, down 2.25 cents
• KCBT May wheat: $5.55, down 2.75 cents
• MIAX March wheat: $5.78.25, down 3.25 cents
• MIAX May wheat: $5.92.50, down 3 cents

Despite the session’s weakness, these wheat prices maintain meaningful support levels, with solid strength in back-month contracts and steady export demand supporting the overall market structure.