Textbook level! While the entire internet is chasing gains and selling off, this "smart money" is quietly making $300,000 by counting Elon Musk's tweets.

In prediction markets, the quietest yet most ruthless wealth often emerges from a corner overlooked by everyone. A trader with the nickname noovd achieved over $345,000 in net profit within a few months by predicting Elon Musk’s weekly tweet count.

His account data shows that since entering the market in July 2024, he completed 1,281 trades, with the largest single profit reaching $136,000. The profit curve remained nearly flat until the end of 2024, then suddenly shot up with several nearly vertical steep lines, each explosion originating from the same target: betting on the interval of Musk’s weekly tweet count.

Market analysis indicates that this player does not involve $BTC price movements or political events, but focuses solely on this narrow track. Prediction platforms divide weekly tweet counts into a dozen or so mutually exclusive intervals, each spanning about 20 tweets. Retail traders often choose mid-range prices arbitrarily, while the prices of edge intervals are frequently severely underestimated.

The core of noovd’s strategy is systematically buying these undervalued “yes” options. He never shorts, nor does he close positions early or hedge. His position sizes range from $4,000 to $30,000, with an average entry cost of just 2 to 39 cents. His advantage comes from a real-time updated quantitative model.

This model incorporates daily tweet data since 2022, quantifies posting habits on weekdays and weekends, and assigns different weights to events such as Starlink launches, Tesla earnings reports, and $DOGE news. By midweek, the model can reduce the error in the remaining days’ required tweet counts to within plus or minus 10 to 15 tweets.

While the market still relies on historical averages to guess, he can identify intervals priced at only 2 cents but with actual probabilities as high as 18% to 25%. The expected value advantage of a single trade often reaches 8 to 20 times. A major win is enough to cover dozens of small trial-and-error attempts and generate huge profits.

For example, during the week of December 9–16, 2025, the number of tweets on Wednesday night exceeded 130. The model calculated that if the remaining four days maintained an average of 32 to 35 tweets per day, the total would fall into the 260–279 range. He invested about $1,569 at an average price of 2 cents, ultimately earning $67,686.33, with a return rate of 4311%.

This is essentially a strategy of buying “deep out-of-the-money options,” betting on the tail of the probability distribution. His operation during the week of December 2–9 set a profit record. At that time, Musk’s Tuesday tweet count exceeded 180, and to reach the 420–439 range, he needed to maintain an extremely high posting frequency. He投入$49,429 at an average price of 24 cents, ultimately earning over $130,000.

Just these two trades alone netted over $255,000. The other thousands of small trades are mostly trial runs, like lubricating a machine. The main reason this method is hard to replicate is the extremely high information barrier. It requires continuous data crawling, historical datasets, and a Poisson distribution model updated every 6 to 12 hours.

Second is the psychological barrier. Facing options priced at just a few dollars, most people see it as throwing money away. Without experiencing enough cycles of drawdowns and settlements, it’s hard to have the courage to hold large positions. In fact, his trading record is not all wins.

Finally, it’s about extreme execution: only placing heavy bets when the advantage exceeds tenfold, treating small losses as tuition, and rolling profits with compound interest. Most importantly, this market inefficiency still exists.

From this case, ordinary traders might learn three points: first, abandon the illusion of winning all markets; instead, deeply explore a narrow and repeatable signal. Depth always beats breadth. Second, completely abandon subjective feelings and rely solely on numbers and data. Building models is far more reliable than relying on intuition.

Third, and most importantly: a 2-cent price with a 20% true probability is far better than a 50-cent price with only a 5% edge. Most people’s behavior patterns are exactly the opposite. In a noisy casino filled with hundredfold dreams, the quietest yet most ruthless wealth belongs to those who can count better than everyone else.

Now, the weekly new bets on Musk’s tweet count are still being launched on time. The problem is, very few can turn this string of numbers into their own printing press.

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