#我在Gate广场过新年 Bitcoin finds support at the 200-week moving average; a clear macro environment is needed to restart the upward trend

On February 17, according to Wintermute research, as spot trading volume continues to shrink, leverage has become the main driver of short-term volatility. In the absence of "structural buying" (long-term funds capable of absorbing selling pressure) to smooth out fluctuations, the market will experience sharp surges and drops on both the bullish and bearish sides.
From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which has historically been a position where bear market bottoms form. Wintermute believes that until clear signals reappear at the macro level, each rebound will be seen as a risk-off opportunity rather than a reason to chase gains. For cryptocurrencies, returning to an upward trajectory still depends on macro clarity. The 200-week moving average remains a support, and since no structural damage has occurred in the market, once macro uncertainties fade, the pace of recovery could be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a range-bound, slightly downward state; the market is dominated by leverage, and $70,000 remains an important near-term resistance level.