Polymarket vs. Kalshi: The Complete Timeline of the Prediction Market "Meme Battle"

Polymarket v. Kalshi: A Complete Timeline of The Prediction Market Meme Wars

By Hunter Ryerson, Pirate Wires

Compiled by Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: From free grocery stores to sarcastic meme battles, the competition between Polymarket and Kalshi has long been about more than just products and market share—it’s a carefully orchestrated attention war. This article outlines the timeline of their rivalry over the years: regulatory battles, user bans and re-entries, social media “competitive meme posting,” and ultimately, marketing stunts spilling into the real world. Behind these seemingly absurd dramatizations are ongoing increases in trading volume, valuation, and capital expectations.

Below is the original text:

On the morning of February 12th, in Manhattan. You wake up in a tiny, shoebox-sized apartment costing $2,000 a month, turn up the heat, and slowly walk to the pantry to see if you can scrape together some breakfast. Then you remember: last night at 3 a.m., you finished the last packet of instant ramen.

Just as you’re hesitating whether to contribute 20% of your income to DoorDash, a message from a friend arrives, telling you that a new grocery store called “The Polymarket” just opened on Madison Street—and everything inside is free. Naturally, you put on your pants, head down to Lower Manhattan, squeeze into the store, and instantly enter “Black Friday frenzy” mode, wildly grabbing everything in sight, stuffing your heavily indebted hands with whatever you can.

As you walk home with bulging shopping bags filled with Sour Patch Kids and vegetables you haven’t seen in weeks—clamped under your arm—you pass by a billboard ad: a market in the East Village is holding a promotion sponsored by a company called “Kalshi,” offering $50 worth of free groceries.

Am I dreaming? How did I get so lucky?

Congratulations, you’ve been caught up in the latest wave of prediction market advertising wars.

Yes. Just this week, the trending prediction platform Polymarket announced its latest marketing stunt: opening a “completely free grocery store” in New York City, operating from February 12 to February 16.

Its competitor, another prediction platform Kalshi, didn’t fall behind, launching its own “grocery-themed” marketing campaign: at Westside Market on Third Avenue, for one limited day, giving out $50 in general grocery subsidies to everyone.

This “copycat” behavior has prompted an X user to comment: “Kalshi and Polymarket can’t even last 24 hours without copying each other.”

At first glance, it seems absurd that Polymarket and Kalshi are competing over “free bananas,” but this is just the latest chapter in their long-standing “blood feud.” Both platforms handle billions of dollars in weekly trading volume. Their business model is straightforward: people bet on seemingly harmless event outcomes to potentially earn huge returns—like whether the U.S. military will arrest Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro while he’s in pajamas. (That night, an anonymous online detective—hopefully not Pete Hegseth—made a killing.)

In short, over the past five years, these prediction markets have been rivals, but the truly intense conflict has only erupted in the past two years.

Polymarket was founded in 2020 by NYU dropout Shayne Coplan, and is a crypto-based platform. Bettors deposit stablecoins like USDC on the Polygon blockchain to buy “Yes” or “No” prediction shares.

In contrast, Kalshi initially operated almost entirely in USD, with trading and funds managed through traditional bank accounts. Since launching in 2021, it mainly focused on sports betting, which accounts for about 90% of its total trading volume. Polymarket, on the other hand, leans toward geopolitical and cultural events—wars, conflicts, elections—and even pays US influencers to promote its political content.

From 2022 to 2025, under intense regulatory pressure from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—which fined it $1.4 million—Polymarket temporarily banned US users, effectively ceding the US market to Kalshi for several years. But just a few months ago, Polymarket re-entered the US market, reigniting fierce clashes, with various frictions playing out on X and across the broader internet.

For the “always online” netizens, the most entertaining part of this war is the so-called “competitive shitposting.”

In sports, this tactic manifests as parody-style sports announcement cards—those used on ESPN or FOX Sports to announce trades, drafts, or injuries, with eye-catching headlines. Both platforms use sensational headlines to “report” sports news, like Polymarket’s “DICK IS GROWING,” implying Toronto Raptors player Gradey Dick is gaining weight; or Kalshi’s “LOVES RECEIVING BALLS,” referring to San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, joking about him “liking to catch passes”—literally, catching passes.

But as both sides battle for meme-driven attention, their tactics have become more lowbrow.

In November 2024, evidence emerged that Kalshi attempted to pay some influencers—like former NFL wide receiver and active X personality Antonio Brown—to post and spread negative comments about Polymarket (see: “Kalshi Pays Influencers to Attack Polymarket CEO After FBI Raid”). One case reportedly involved a journalist being offered $3,500 to write a hit piece against Polymarket. (Side note: If Solana were willing to spend that much to have me write a hit piece, I could have impeached Jackie Fielder before Monday.)

These influencers are said to have millions of followers. Over the past few years, they’ve been gradually eroding Polymarket’s credibility.

After this incident, the Trump administration relaxed prediction market regulations, allowing Polymarket to make a strong comeback in the US. After months of preparation, the US ban was officially lifted in December, and Polymarket is now trying to regain dominance in on-chain prediction markets (Kalshi still leads after integrating with the Solana blockchain).

One way they try to amplify their presence is by posting news on X. Over the past few months, Polymarket and Kalshi’s official accounts have clashed on timelines, using punchy headlines and celebrity quotes to gain attention—sometimes at the expense of accuracy or other principles. Recently, Polymarket mistakenly attributed a quote to Jeff Bezos and exaggerated deportation data; Kalshi, meanwhile, spread false rumors about negotiations to acquire Greenland.

Ultimately, this feud has spilled from online platforms into the real world, and hopefully, it continues to bring some positive “spillover effects” to ordinary Americans like you who are strapped for cash. But the real point is: whether it’s marketing stunts like “free groceries” or sarcastic meme battles on X, these two companies excel at creating buzz and keeping people talking about them.

No matter how shady or bizarre their tactics to outdo each other, we keep discussing it.

Perhaps that’s exactly what they want. Kalshi and Polymarket are valued at $11 billion and $9 billion respectively—and their valuations continue to climb at an astonishing rate. So, as long as these dramatic antics attract a few hundred new bettors or lure in some investors, it’s all worth it. For these two “combatants,” it’s basically a win-win—if you’re willing to believe that.