TotalEnergies' buyback reduces stock price but still hits new highs, market interprets it as a defensive strategy

Economics Observer Network: TotalEnergies (TTE.N) stock price reached a 60-day high after announcing a reduction in share repurchase scale. Market analysts believe that its resilient performance, expected production growth, and solid balance sheet are the main supporting factors.

Recent Stock Performance

As of February 11, 2026, TotalEnergies stock closed at $75.75, up 1.50% for the day, hitting a 60-day high, with a year-to-date increase of 15.79%. Despite the company announcing on the same day that its Q1 2026 share repurchase program would be reduced from $1.5 billion in Q4 2025 to $750 million, the stock still strengthened against the trend.

Operational Performance

In Q4 2025, adjusted net profit was $3.84 billion, down 13% year-over-year but slightly above analyst expectations. Refining segment profit surged 215% year-over-year to $1 billion, partially offsetting the negative impact of falling oil and gas prices. The company maintained a quarterly dividend of €0.85 per share and did not adjust its full-year buyback target range.

Project Progress

In Q1 2026, oil and gas production is expected to exceed 2.6 million barrels per day, a year-over-year increase of about 3%, driven by new project commissioning. Additionally, the company plans to reduce net investments from $17.1 billion in 2025 to $15 billion, focusing on low-cost and low-carbon projects to improve capital efficiency.

Industry Policies and Environment

Brent crude oil prices recently rebounded to $69 per barrel, above the company’s assumed baseline of $60, alleviating concerns over cash flow pressures. Jefferies reported that TotalEnergies has a lower debt-to-equity ratio than European peers, indicating a healthy balance sheet. On the same day, the integrated oil and gas sector rose 1.71% overall, with active buying pushing the volume ratio to 0.78, and technical breakthroughs reinforcing short-term upward momentum.

Event Impact

The adjustment in buyback scale is viewed as a defensive strategy during a low oil price cycle, rather than a sign of deteriorating fundamentals. CEO Pouyanne emphasized that the move aims to “balance cash generation and expenditure” to maintain financial flexibility. Compared to peers, TotalEnergies continues to deliver shareholder returns, supporting valuation recovery.

The above content is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice.