Gold and silver prices "rollercoaster" - institutions remain optimistic about the long-term trend but warn of short-term correction risks

Recently, international precious metal prices have shown a downward trend. On February 17, spot silver prices once fell over 6%, gold declined by nearly 3% at the highest point, and U.S. stock precious metal concept stocks collectively declined. Market data shows that intra-day, spot silver prices dropped to $71.96 per ounce, the lowest since February 9. Spot gold also fell to $4,842.67 per ounce, the lowest since February 9.

This price decline was driven by multiple factors. On the news front, during the second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations ending on the 17th, both sides reached consensus on some overall issues, indicating a easing of tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar intra-day was also a bearish factor for precious metals.

Since the beginning of 2026, gold and silver have experienced more intense “roller coaster” fluctuations. Currently, the precious metals market has shifted from “one-way upward” to “range-bound oscillation,” driven by a complex interplay of financial attributes, industrial demand, macro expectations, and geopolitical risks. Previously, gold and silver prices had accumulated large gains, market sentiment was extremely sensitive, and easily disturbed by news, which intensified panic selling and amplified price volatility. This sharp fluctuation has also significantly increased trading difficulty for investors, demanding greater flexibility and risk management capabilities.

However, many institutions believe that, in the current complex and volatile global economic landscape, the long-term logic of gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets and important industrial demand carriers remains solid.

Long-term Logic of Gold and Silver Remains Unchanged

ANZ Bank released a recent research report, raising its gold price forecast from $5,400 per ounce to $5,800 per ounce, expecting this target to be reached by the second quarter of 2026. The bank stated in the report that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is likely to further loosen, geopolitical tensions may escalate, and the U.S. dollar is expected to continue weakening.

“At least until geopolitical stability is achieved, U.S. structural fiscal issues are resolved, and the Federal Reserve’s credibility is restored, strategic allocation to gold remains meaningful. However, these are unlikely to be realized in the short term,” ANZ emphasized in the report, noting that investors are gradually diversifying assets and reducing dollar exposure.

Ping An Securities’ research report pointed out that the long-term trend of gold remains solid. Under the background of excessive monetary issuance and fiscal deficit monetization, the U.S. dollar’s credit system is under challenge; coupled with frequent global geopolitical turmoil promoting asset diversification, demand for gold as a safe asset continues to rise. The trend of “de-dollarization” worldwide may position gold as a new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals. The logic that “Federal Reserve rate cuts + increasing overseas uncertainties + global de-dollarization trend” support gold prices still holds.

The Guotai Haitong Macro Analysis Team believes that in the medium to long term, silver prices will still be supported. First, emerging industries represented by photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI servers create structural and sustained growth in silver demand. Second, gold and silver prices tend to move in tandem. Since 2022, global central bank gold purchases have driven gold prices higher. Central bank gold buying is long-term and ongoing, reflecting a restructuring of the monetary system following changes in major countries’ trust foundations. Currently, emerging economies hold a much lower proportion of gold reserves compared to developed economies, and future gold purchases are expected to accelerate. Third, in November 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey included silver in its list of critical minerals for the first time, potentially elevating it from a common commodity to a strategic asset. In September 2024, Russia designated silver as an official reserve asset. In April 2026, India’s Reserve Bank implemented new regulations allowing silver to be used as collateral for banks and non-bank financial institutions. Some economies may increase silver reserves, which could provide long-term support for silver prices.

Senior researcher Cao Shanshan from COFCO Futures believes that for gold, the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts and weakening of U.S. dollar credit, combined with structural central bank gold purchases and cyclical ETF buying, form the core support for higher gold prices. It is expected that in 2026, easing monetary policy and ongoing uncertainties will persist, but the rate of increase may be lower than in 2025, requiring flexible trading around event windows. The long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged. Since 2018, gold has been consistently bullish, and the current trend remains upward, with shallow pullbacks and difficulty in falling.

Analyst from Dongfang Jincheng believes that under the trend of reshaping gold pricing logic and evolving its role by 2026, the fundamental factors supporting gold prices in recent years will continue to play a role, and international gold prices are expected to rise to $6,000 per ounce.

The upward trend of silver has also not ended. First, based on historical patterns, silver’s 70%-80% correlation with gold means that an upward trend in gold will drive silver higher. Second, there are fundamental supports. Silver, as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc, has capital expenditures based on primary products, with an annual growth rate of only 2%-3%. High silver prices do not stimulate increased supply, so supply growth remains limited. Demand from AI applications can offset declines in photovoltaic demand, with semiconductor demand growth conservatively estimated at 8%, supporting steady industrial demand.

Short-term Caution: Rising “Uncertainty”

Although many institutions support a long-term positive outlook for gold and silver markets, recent significant volatility in the global precious metals market makes short-term price movements increasingly unpredictable amid multiple factors, posing serious challenges to investors’ risk appetite and asset allocation strategies.

Guotai Haitong Macro Analysis points out that, based on the gold-silver ratio, the recent rebound in silver may be a short-term overrun, warning of potential corrections. Since October 2018, gold prices have decoupled from U.S. real yields, indicating increasing influence of non-economic factors on gold prices. “Starting from this, we examined the volatility of gold and silver prices. Results show that in 2020 and 2022, when gold prices surged rapidly, silver’s gains were relatively weak, and the gold-silver ratio deviated from its long-term average. Subsequently, silver prices caught up, restoring the ratio. In Q1 2025, COMEX silver inventories surged, and silver’s gains lagged behind gold again. Later, silver prices sharply rebounded, causing the ratio to fall quickly. Analyzing price fluctuations of gold and silver since 1968, current silver prices may be at risk of overrun.”

GF Futures precious metals researcher Ye Qianning noted that during the Spring Festival, global macro uncertainties remain high. On one hand, liquidity in the U.S. stock and bond markets is affected by economic data and policy expectations, which can trigger algorithmic selling. On the other hand, the rebound in central bank and ETF investment demand needs time to verify. Currently, gold requires attention to support at the 20-day moving average and changes in volatility; if negative news emerges, gold prices may test the 60-day moving average again. For silver, structural supply tightness and low inventories still support prices, but downstream demand during the Spring Festival weakens, and exchange restrictions may suppress rebound momentum.

“From past experience, large surges in precious metals are often followed by profit-taking at high positions, leading to declines. Currently, investor confidence needs repair, and the market may enter a 2-4 month consolidation phase, brewing for a new upward breakout, possibly around the time the market expects the Fed to cut rates again this year,” Ye further warned.

Analyst from Dongfang Jincheng believes that in 2026, potential uncertainties surrounding the Fed chair appointment, policy choices after Wosh’s possible election, market expectations of rate cuts, potential fluctuations in dollar liquidity, debates over ‘AI valuation bubbles,’ and geopolitical and economic risks could all disturb gold prices and amplify volatility through market sentiment.