Why These Quantum Computing Stocks Could Deliver 28x Returns by 2035

The quantum computing sector is attracting significant investor attention as a potential breakthrough technology market. While commercial applications remain largely on the horizon, the long-term opportunity is enormous. Two companies frequently mentioned in quantum computing investment discussions are IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS). Both stocks are pursuing distinct technological paths and could generate returns exceeding 1,000% if their strategies succeed. However, investors must recognize that the probability of failure significantly outweighs the chances of success for these emerging technology plays.

Two Different Approaches to Quantum Technology

IonQ and D-Wave Quantum represent divergent visions for solving quantum computing challenges. Understanding these differences is crucial for evaluating these stocks’ potential.

IonQ employs trapped-ion technology, which uses laser systems to cool individual atoms to near absolute zero. At these extreme temperatures, atoms behave according to quantum mechanical principles rather than classical physics, enabling data processing capabilities far beyond traditional computers.

D-Wave Quantum utilizes quantum annealing, a technique designed to identify the lowest energy states in complex systems. In practical computing applications, this translates to finding optimal or near-optimal solutions to intricate optimization and sampling problems. This approach makes D-Wave’s machines particularly suited for the variety of real-world problems expected to drive quantum computing adoption.

The critical uncertainty is which technological approach—if either—will prove most valuable in the commercial market. This ambiguity underscores why investors should consider diversifying their quantum bets rather than backing a single horse. Should one company successfully commercialize its technology and capture a major market share, the returns for that stocks could be extraordinary.

Sizing the Market Opportunity: A $50 Billion Prize by 2035

McKinsey & Company projected in 2025 that quantum computing could generate $28 billion to $72 billion in annual revenue by 2035. Taking the midpoint of $50 billion represents a market worth capturing.

If a dominant player in this space captures approximately 90% market share—similar to Nvidia’s dominance in artificial intelligence processors—that would translate to $45 billion in annual revenue. For context, AMD is projected to generate approximately $47 billion in annual revenue for 2026, with a market capitalization near $400 billion.

Currently, D-Wave and IonQ trade at market capitalizations of $7.5 billion and $13.4 billion respectively. A $400 billion valuation for either company would represent a 5,233% gain for D-Wave stocks or a 2,885% gain for IonQ stocks. These calculations assume one company becomes the clear winner while competitors fade—an outcome requiring substantial execution and favorable competitive dynamics.

Weighing Exceptional Upside Against Substantial Risk

The projected returns outlined above depend on multiple favorable developments aligning simultaneously. These stocks would need to outperform considerable competition, including established technology players and well-funded quantum startups. The execution risk is substantial.

However, the mathematics of this opportunity warrant consideration. Even a modest initial position—say 1% of a portfolio—could become a portfolio driver with returns in the 2,000% range. An investor holding equal-weight positions in both stocks could afford a 100% loss in one and still achieve significant gains if the other succeeds.

The investment philosophy here differs from traditional stock analysis. These stocks represent “venture-style” bets on breakthrough technology rather than established business models. Investors should size positions accordingly, maintaining discipline about portfolio allocation.

The Path Forward: Investor Considerations

Before committing capital to these quantum computing stocks, acknowledge the inherent uncertainties. The technology remains unproven at commercial scale. Market adoption timelines remain speculative. Regulatory frameworks continue to develop.

Yet the potential is genuine. If either IonQ or D-Wave Quantum achieves technical breakthroughs and captures meaningful market share, their stocks could deliver multiples that rival or exceed the returns generated by early investors in companies like Nvidia (which delivered 114x returns for early investors) or Netflix.

Success would require these companies to navigate intense competition, achieve technical milestones on aggressive timelines, and execute flawless business strategies. The probability of all these factors aligning is lower than the probability of failure. Nevertheless, for investors with appropriate risk tolerance and portfolio construction, these stocks warrant consideration as high-risk, potentially high-reward positions.

Position sizing should reflect this risk profile. Begin small. Allow winners to compound. Monitor technical progress and market developments carefully. The quantum computing era may indeed arrive—but the stocks that capture the opportunity’s value remain uncertain.