The Israeli military is hunting for spies on Polymarket

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

The unfair competitive advantage brought by insider information has always been a controversial focus on prediction markets like Polymarket.

Previously, during the U.S. military’s arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, the odds related to the event on Polymarket showed early fluctuations (see “When War Is Settled Before the News: How Prediction Markets Price Maduro’s Arrest Six Days in Advance”). If that suspected insider activity could be explained by the volatility of the “Pizza Index,” then this time, having an insider on Polymarket can be said to be thoroughly confirmed.

Israeli Military Internal Crackdown on “Ghosts”

On February 12, The Jerusalem Post reported that a Tel Aviv district court filed charges on Monday against an Israeli civilian and an IDF reserve soldier, accusing both of using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket for profit. The court revealed on Thursday that Israeli authorities believe this behavior posed serious operational security risks during wartime.

According to a statement approved by prosecutors, the suspects were arrested during joint operations involving the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), the security units under the Ministry of Defense, and the Israeli police. Investigators suspect that some reserve soldiers are leveraging confidential information obtained through their military roles to bet on the timing of military operations for profit.

Following these investigations, the prosecution stated that they have evidence of improper conduct between the civilian and the reserve soldier, and therefore decided to file charges of “serious security crimes,” as well as bribery and obstruction of justice. Meanwhile, they requested the court extend the suspects’ detention until the case is concluded.

Beyond the publicly released information, additional case details remain legally restricted, including the identities of the defendants, specific betting contents, and the flow of sensitive information.

Tracing the Insider

Although we cannot identify the true identity or account details of the insider, the X community had already discovered an account on Polymarket exhibiting obvious abnormal behavior. The Jerusalem Post also published a screenshot of this account’s profits in their report.

As shown in the image above, a user named Rundeep entered Polymarket in June 2025, and subsequently achieved a 100% win rate across six prediction markets related to Israeli military actions, five of which were placed when the probability was below 50%, ultimately earning over $150,000.

It’s worth noting that Odaily Planet Daily found that aside from these six successful bets, Rundeep had one loss on Polymarket. That loss was on a prediction unrelated to Israel — specifically, whether the U.S. military would take action against Iran before Saturday, June 21, 2025. It seems that allied intelligence is still somewhat unreliable.

The Real-World Consequences of Prediction Market Manipulation, Think Twice

Because Polymarket is open and permissionless, anyone can freely place bets on the platform. Objectively, this provides groups with an informational advantage a more convenient channel to monetize their intelligence — driven by profit motives, those holding unequal information are hard to resist temptation, making insider trading and insider bets inevitable.

If such incidents occurred in sports, entertainment, or other conventional fields, the impact might still be manageable. But when these events happen in sensitive areas like politics or war, insider betting could lead to terrifying consequences that are hard to imagine.

For example, in this article, if an opposing force had used insider betting on Polymarket to pre-guess the direction of Israeli operations, it could have significantly influenced subsequent developments. Many might find it hard to empathize with Israel, but in reality, such incidents could happen to any entity.

In traditional betting sectors, public affairs such as political elections, legislative outcomes, or wars are usually subject to clear restrictions. Whether prediction markets will face similar regulatory constraints in the future remains a long-term regulatory game.