Federal Reserve spokesperson: The Federal Reserve minutes did not specify a timeline for inflation returning to 2%, reflecting weakened confidence in the inflation trajectory

On February 19, “Federal Reserve whisperer” Nick Timiraos wrote that the content not mentioned in this Federal Reserve meeting minutes is more worth paying attention to. He pointed out that in multiple meetings until December last year, staff predicted that inflation would fall back to 2% by 2027, but the December minutes pushed the timeline back to 2028. In the January meeting minutes, there was no clear indication of the specific time when inflation would reach 2%, only stating that compared to the December forecast, the figure was “slightly higher and balanced,” and expecting that after the tariffs’ impact ends mid-year, inflation will return to its previous downward trend. The previous mention of “reaching 2% by 2028” was no longer present. Nick Timiraos implied that this reflects a weakening of the Fed’s confidence in the inflation path, affected by tight resource utilization and rising import prices. The official minutes confirmed that forecasts are slightly higher than in December but did not specify the year of return, highlighting policy uncertainty.