How Meta’s NVIDIA-Centered AI Bet Could Shape Meta Platforms (META) Investors’ Long-Term Thesis

SelfRugger

2026-02-19 02:41:08

How Meta’s NVIDIA-Centered AI Bet Could Shape Meta Platforms (META) Investors’ Long-Term Thesis

Simply Wall St

Thu, February 19, 2026 at 11:14 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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Meta Platforms Investment Narrative Recap

To own Meta today, you need to believe its heavy AI and infrastructure spending will ultimately reinforce its core advertising and social platforms rather than dilute them. The Nvidia partnership and US$10 billion Indiana AI data center underscore this “go big on AI” approach, which intensifies the key near term catalyst of AI driven product improvements but also magnifies the biggest risk: that capital expenditure and operating costs rise faster than revenue and pressure margins and free cash flow.

Among recent developments, Meta’s guidance for US$115 billion to US$135 billion of 2026 capital expenditure is most relevant here, as the Nvidia deal appears to sit squarely within that envelope. Together, the hardware commitment and multi gigawatt data center builds make clear that AI infrastructure is not a side project but the financial center of gravity for the next few years, which could either strengthen Meta’s long term earnings power or extend the period of compressed profitability.

Yet, against this ambitious AI build out, investors should be aware that mounting regulatory and legal scrutiny around youth safety could still…

Read the full narrative on Meta Platforms (it’s free!)

Meta Platforms’ narrative projects $275.9 billion revenue and $92.1 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Meta Platforms’ forecasts yield a $835.54 fair value, a 30% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

META 1-Year Stock Price Chart

The most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue could reach about US$278 billion and earnings US$100 billion by 2028, so this Nvidia centric AI build out may either justify that upside or expose how much depends on AI paying off, reminding you that credible views on Meta’s risk and reward can differ sharply.

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Explore 77 other fair value estimates on Meta Platforms - why the stock might be worth just $630.00!

Decide For Yourself

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

A great starting point for your Meta Platforms research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

Our free Meta Platforms research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Meta Platforms' overall financial health at a glance.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include META.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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