Is the extreme decline driven by a cycle or a misjudgment?

Bitcoin's decline approaching historically extreme levels essentially reflects the market's re-pricing of risk.
From a cyclical perspective, crypto assets still exhibit high volatility. Every bull market is followed by a deep correction, which is a structural cyclical characteristic.
But what’s worth paying attention to is:
Is on-chain activity declining?
Are long-term holders fleeing en masse?
Is mining power significantly declining?
If the fundamentals haven't deteriorated significantly, yet prices are approaching historical extremes, then the decline is more likely driven by liquidity rather than a collapse in value.
Extreme drops often involve two stages:
The first stage is panic selling;
The second stage is sideways consolidation to form a bottom.
True trend reversals usually occur after market sentiment cools down, not during emotional outbursts.
Therefore, when declines approach extremes, the strategy should focus on position management and pacing, rather than going all-in.
Markets will fluctuate, but cycles will eventually turn.
Extreme value zones are moments that test patience.
#比特币跌幅逼近历史极值