Trump states that the US trade balance will turn positive in 2026.

Investing.com - U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that due to his trade tariff policies, the U.S. trade deficit has significantly narrowed, and the United States is expected to achieve a trade surplus by 2026 — the first time in decades.

Trump posted on social media that the U.S. trade deficit “has decreased by 78% due to tariffs imposed on other companies and countries.” He did not specify the time period or the basis for the 78% figure.

Trump added, “(the deficit) will turn positive this year.”

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Government data and calculations from Investing.com show that the U.S. goods and services trade deficit fell from a record $140.5 billion in March 2025 to $27.62 billion in October 2025 — a decrease of about 80%.

However, the trade deficit rose to $56.82 billion in November.

At the time of Trump’s remarks, official trade data for December is about to be released on Thursday. According to government data, this figure is expected to show a trade surplus of $55.5 billion for the month — the first monthly trade surplus since 1975.

The U.S. trade deficit for all of 2025 is still projected to exceed $800 billion, while the 2024 deficit hit a record $1.2 trillion. The 2025 deficit mainly resulted from a surge in imports in the first quarter, when domestic importers stockpiled various goods ahead of the so-called “Deregulation Day” tariffs implemented by Trump in April.

The goods trade deficit is expected to remain near the historic high of approximately $1.2 trillion.

In 2025, Trump imposed trade tariffs on a wide range of goods and levied tariffs on hundreds of countries, with rates ranging from as low as 10% to as high as 50%.

Although the president reduced most of the highest tariffs after negotiations and trade agreements with several major countries, his tariff policies did indeed lead to a decline in imports, especially from China.

From January to November 2025, U.S. imports from China decreased from $401 billion in the same period in 2024 to $288 billion.

However, government data shows that the decline in imports from China was largely offset by increases in imports from several other Asian and European countries.

This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. For more information, see our Terms of Use.