Is It Too Late To Consider International Petroleum (TSX:IPCO) After A 7x Five Year Run?

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 9:18 AM GMT+9 5 min read

In this article:

IPCFF

+7.26%

Track your investments for FREE with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.

If you are wondering whether International Petroleum’s share price still offers value after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current market price might be implying.

The stock last closed at C$29.88, with share price returns of 1.7% over 7 days, 20.9% over 30 days, 17.4% year to date, 58.2% over 1 year and a very large gain over 5 years of more than 7x.

Recent coverage around International Petroleum has focused on its share price performance and how investors are reassessing the company in the context of the wider energy sector. This backdrop is an important part of understanding why the market is currently pricing the shares where it is.

International Petroleum currently has a valuation score of 2 out of 6. We will look at what that means using different valuation approaches and then finish with a broader way to think about the company’s value beyond any single model.

International Petroleum scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: International Petroleum Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s value, so you can compare that figure to the current share price.

For International Petroleum, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $127.07 million, so the valuation relies heavily on what the business is expected to generate in future years.

Analyst and extrapolated projections suggest free cash flow reaching $323.51 million by 2035, with intermediate years such as 2026 at $54.40 million and 2030 at $306.33 million. Simply Wall St provides analyst inputs for the earlier years and then extrapolates beyond that point.

When all these projected cash flows are discounted back, the model estimates an intrinsic value of $88.73 per share. Compared with the recent market price of C$29.88, the DCF output implies the shares are 66.3% undervalued on this set of assumptions.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests International Petroleum is undervalued by 66.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 6 more high quality undervalued stocks.

IPCO Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for International Petroleum.

Story Continues  

Approach 2: International Petroleum Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a commonly used way to think about value because it links what you pay directly to the earnings the business generates today. Investors usually accept a higher P/E if they expect stronger growth or see lower risk, and a lower P/E if they see weaker growth or higher risk.

International Petroleum currently trades on a P/E of 85.43x. That sits well above the Oil and Gas industry average of 17.08x and also above the peer group average of 28.85x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for the company is 21.63x, which is an estimate of what a more “normal” P/E might be given its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.

The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for factors that can justify a higher or lower multiple, rather than assuming all companies in the sector should trade on the same P/E.

Putting this together, International Petroleum’s current P/E of 85.43x is well above the Fair Ratio of 21.63x, which points to the shares looking expensive on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

TSX:IPCO P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 4 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your International Petroleum Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which let you attach a clear story about International Petroleum’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and a fair value, then compare that fair value with today’s share price to help you decide whether you see it as an opportunity or a risk.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, you can pick or create a Narrative that reflects your view, and it will automatically update when fresh information like Blackrod Phase 1 progress, new earnings numbers or revisions to analyst assumptions come through.

For example, one investor might focus on the analyst case where revenue is projected to reach about US$1.2b by 2028 with earnings of US$218.6 million and a future P/E of 9.3x to arrive at a fair value close to the CA$26.45 updated estimate. In contrast, a more cautious investor might lean toward the lower earnings expectation of US$92.5 million and a fair value closer to the CA$22.42 bearish target. Narratives let both views sit side by side so you can see where you stand.

Do you think there’s more to the story for International Petroleum? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

TSX:IPCO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include IPCO.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

Terms and Privacy Policy

Privacy Dashboard

More Info