FOMC minutes show the Fed is MORE DIVIDED than anyone realized 🧵 The bombshell buried in the minutes: "Some participants" want to HOLD rates steady indefinitely until inflation clearly returns to 2%. Translation: Rate cuts are NOT a done deal. Here's what you need to know: 1️⃣ Markets priced in 2-3 cuts by mid-2026 The Fed just said "not so fast" 2️⃣ Internal division is REAL Several members want to pause rate cuts entirely until disinflation is "firmly back on track" 3️⃣ Powell's term ends in May With policy hawk Kevin Warsh potentially incoming as Fed Chair, the committee is playing it safe Why this matters: If the Fed holds at 3.5%-3.75% through Q2, expect: • Continued pressure on high-valuation tech • USD strength • Banks keeping elevated margins • The "June cut" trade might be DEAD "Higher for longer" just got LONGER. Immediate market reaction: 📈 10-Year Treasury: ↑ 4.087% 📈 2-Year Treasury: ↑ 3.464% 💵 US Dollar: Strengthening 📅 Rate cut expectations: Pushed to June+ The takeaway? The consensus "dovish Fed" narrative just cracked. When internal disagreement surfaces in FOMC minutes, it means policy uncertainty is rising. And markets HATE uncertainty.
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🚨The Fed just revealed something markets MISSED.
FOMC minutes show the Fed is MORE DIVIDED than anyone realized 🧵
The bombshell buried in the minutes:
"Some participants" want to HOLD rates steady indefinitely until inflation clearly returns to 2%.
Translation: Rate cuts are NOT a done deal.
Here's what you need to know:
1️⃣ Markets priced in 2-3 cuts by mid-2026
The Fed just said "not so fast"
2️⃣ Internal division is REAL
Several members want to pause rate cuts entirely until disinflation is "firmly back on track"
3️⃣ Powell's term ends in May
With policy hawk Kevin Warsh potentially incoming as Fed Chair, the committee is playing it safe
Why this matters:
If the Fed holds at 3.5%-3.75% through Q2, expect:
• Continued pressure on high-valuation tech
• USD strength
• Banks keeping elevated margins
• The "June cut" trade might be DEAD
"Higher for longer" just got LONGER.
Immediate market reaction:
📈 10-Year Treasury: ↑ 4.087%
📈 2-Year Treasury: ↑ 3.464%
💵 US Dollar: Strengthening
📅 Rate cut expectations: Pushed to June+
The takeaway?
The consensus "dovish Fed" narrative just cracked.
When internal disagreement surfaces in FOMC minutes, it means policy uncertainty is rising.
And markets HATE uncertainty.