The tariff file is at a breaking point… and one decision could upend the markets.



Markets are pricing in a high probability that the Supreme Court will rule the tariffs imposed under the Trump administration’s “emergency” declaration unconstitutional—the opposite scenario is currently considered unlikely.

A ruling of invalidity would open the floodgates to massive compensation claims from affected companies and countries… unofficial estimates put the bill in the trillions of dollars—a direct blow to US finances.

📌 Potential shock effect on markets:

▪️ Stocks: A strong boost due to lower import costs and improved corporate margins.

▪️ Dollar: Selling pressure amid widening deficit risks.

▪️ Gold: Potentially rising as a safe haven amid any financial turmoil or increased spending.

⚠️ One decision… could change the direction of global liquidity.

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