Cryptocurrency Market Depth Analysis (February 17, 2026)

Collective Sell-Off
In the past 24 hours, the virtual currency market has experienced another sharp decline. Bitcoin dropped from over $70,000 to around $68,400, a decline of more than 2%. Ethereum plunged nearly 6%, briefly falling below the $1,950 level. Other major coins also followed the downward trend, with Dogecoin falling nearly 8%, Solana down 4%, and the market overall turning weaker.
According to CoinGlass data, in the last 24 hours, a total of 117,523 traders were liquidated worldwide, with total liquidation amounting to $332 million. Bitcoin liquidations reached $124 million, Ethereum liquidations were $86 million, indicating significant leverage liquidation pressure in the market.
Liquidity Crisis Emerges
The US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF recently experienced a two-day outflow of funds, totaling $686 million transferred out of the fund. The largest single-day redemption was $410.4 million, further expanding from the previous day's outflow of approximately $276.3 million.
Specifically, BlackRock’s IBIT lost about $157.6 million in a single day, Fidelity’s FBTC lost approximately $104.1 million, and traditional products like GBTC and other Bitcoin trusts collectively declined by about $92.6 million. Over the past three months, IBIT experienced net redemptions of about $2.8 billion, confirming that even the largest sponsors are not immune despite Bitcoin’s nearly 50% drop from its peak.
The Ethereum ETF situation is even more severe. As of mid-February, it experienced a net outflow of about $161 million over a week, marking the fourth consecutive week of negative flow, with about $129 million and $113 million withdrawn on just two trading days. The 30-day simple moving average of net flow has remained negative for about three months.
Macroeconomic Environment Deteriorates
At the opening this morning, spot gold dropped by 0.5%, and silver plunged 3.6%. Copper, platinum, and crude oil all experienced sharp declines. The liquidity indicators for cryptocurrencies remain valid, showing that global risk assets are generally under pressure.
Bloomberg Intelligence former commodities strategist Mike McGlone warned that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 amid increasing risks of a US recession. McGlone linked Bitcoin’s decline to record-high US market cap-to-GDP ratios, low stock volatility, and rising gold prices, warning that contagion could spread to the stock market.
Bottom Not Yet Confirmed
According to a new report from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin traders believe that this top-tier crypto asset has already bottomed out in the cycle, which may lead to disappointment. The company's weekly report emphasizes that traders need patience, noting that the bear market bottom “takes time to form,” and states that the true bottom for Bitcoin is around $55,000.
The report states that this price level has historically been a major support zone during bear markets. Based on the company's data, the realized price—an indicator tracking the average purchase price of investors—has been touched at the bottoms of the last two bear markets. “Once the price reaches this level, it usually hovers around it for 4 to 6 months.”
CryptoQuant’s analysis aligns with other recent analyses from various firms. Galaxy’s research head pointed out that the lack of recent catalysts and structural weakness are reasons why the asset might head toward the 200-week moving average around $58,000.
Additionally, earlier this week, Standard Chartered updated its forecast, indicating that BTC could fall to $50,000 before rebounding to $100,000. The prediction market Myriad, operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, also shares a similar view: expecting Bitcoin to drop to $55,000 and then rise to $84,000, with about a 54% probability.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below the key psychological level of $70,000 and is currently testing support at $68,000. If this level fails, the next support is at $65,000, with a potential final test of the critical support zone at $55,000–$58,000.
Ethereum’s performance is even weaker, having fallen below the important psychological level of $2,000, currently trading around $1,950. If it drops below $1,900, it could further decline to $1,800 or even the previous low of $1,750.
Market Sentiment
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator is still in the “bear market” phase and has not entered the “extreme bear market” zone, which typically signals the bottom. This suggests there may still be room for further decline, and the true bottom has not yet formed.
BlackRock’s digital asset head warned that leverage-driven volatility threatens Bitcoin’s institutional narrative. Excessive leverage is undermining market stability and hindering broader institutional adoption.
Outlook
In the short term, the market may continue to be under pressure. The ETHDenver conference begins today, but market reactions to positive news may be limited. The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes will be released this week, potentially providing more clues on monetary policy.
Investors should remain patient; forming a bear market bottom takes time. Historical data shows that the true bottom often takes several months to build, during which the market repeatedly tests key support levels.
For long-term investors, the $55,000–$58,000 range may be an important accumulation zone. However, short-term traders should exercise caution, controlling positions and leverage in the current market environment.
Data sources: CoinGlass, CryptoQuant, CoinDesk, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered, Galaxy Digital
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; invest cautiously.