Thursday Morning Wheat Futures Sustain Rally Momentum Across Three Major Exchanges

Wheat markets opened with renewed strength on Thursday morning, building on Wednesday’s impressive gains across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis trading venues. The rally demonstrated broad-based participation, with all three major wheat futures contracts extending their upward trajectory as traders repositioned ahead of upcoming export data releases.

Synchronized Gains Signal Renewed Buying Interest

The three principal wheat contracts displayed coordinated strength during Thursday morning’s session. Chicago SRW (Soft Red Winter) wheat futures led the advance with gains ranging from 8 to 12¾ cents, reflecting robust demand for this variety. Kansas City HRW (Hard Red Winter) wheat showed comparable momentum, rising 4¾ to 10¼ cents at the Wednesday close, positioning it favorably for the current session. Minneapolis spring wheat lagged slightly with more modest gains of fractional amounts to 2½ cents, though the contract still participated in the broader market strength.

The Wednesday close saw particularly notable activity in the CBOT complex. March 2026 contracts settled at $5.36, up 12¾ cents, while May 2026 futures closed at $5.44½, advancing 11¾ cents. Kansas City futures reflected similar strength, with March 2026 closing at $5.42¼ (up 9½ cents) and May 2026 at $5.52¾ (up 10 cents). Minneapolis spring wheat showed the largest percentage moves among longer-dated contracts, with March closing at $5.74 and May at $5.86¼.

Open interest data provided additional confirmation of fresh buying pressure, with the market recording an increase of 4,552 contracts Wednesday. This expansion suggests new participants entering positions rather than existing traders adding to current holdings, a bullish signal for market momentum continuation.

Dollar Weakness and Weather Forecasts Fuel Market Support

Thursday morning’s gains drew fundamental support from two key market drivers. Weakness in the U.S. dollar index throughout the week provided a natural tailwind for commodity prices, making wheat more affordable for international buyers. Simultaneously, weather forecasts for the coming week painted a picture of limited precipitation across much of the Southern Plains, with only scattered moisture expected along the eastern edges of Hard Red Winter growing regions.

This combination of factors—weaker currency dynamics and reduced rainfall prospects—created an environment favorable for sustained buying interest in wheat contracts across all three trading venues.

Export Sales Data and Market Expectations

Thursday morning brought the release of Export Sales data for the week ending January 22, a key weekly indicator closely watched by grain traders. Market participants are pricing in wheat bookings estimates ranging between 275,000 and 600,000 metric tons for the reporting period. This wide range reflects uncertainty about international demand, though the midpoint suggests solid export interest that could provide additional support to prices during the session.

The convergence of improved technical momentum, favorable fundamental factors, and upcoming export confirmation data established Thursday morning as a critical juncture for wheat market direction in the weeks ahead.