#美国核心CPI创四年新低 The US Core CPI Unexpectedly Falls to a Four-Year Low, Slightly Increasing the Probability of Rate Cuts

January inflation data unexpectedly cooled, further supporting market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year.
Traders estimate a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates three times this year, with a 30% chance of a rate cut before April and over an 80% chance before June.
Despite easing inflation, a steady labor market may lead the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for a period.
The US January non-farm payroll report showed strong performance, with 130,000 new jobs added, the largest increase since April 2025, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, below market expectations of 4.4%. Trump later praised the January non-farm data as "far exceeding expectations" on social media and reiterated calls for the Fed to lower rates to "the lowest globally." He stated that as the world's leading power, the US should enjoy the lowest interest rates to save significant interest expenses and achieve a balanced or surplus federal budget.
Federal Reserve Board member Milan said that strong employment data does not mean rate hikes should be delayed. He pointed out that supply-side reforms such as easing business regulations are already underway, and with housing inflation expected to slow, conditions are favorable for further rate cuts. Since joining the Board last September, Milan has advocated for more substantial rate reductions.
However, regional Fed officials, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, indicated that during the assessment of economic data, interest rates might remain unchanged for an extended period, emphasizing the importance of patience and observing policy effects. She expects inflation to ease this year, but if the economy deviates from expectations, officials need to remain flexible and may consider rate hikes if necessary.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also supports keeping rates steady unless there is a substantial new weakness in the labor market.
Reuters reports that the Fed’s 2% inflation target mainly references the PCE price index, but both CPI and PCE remain above target levels. In the labor market, government data this week showed that January employment growth accelerated, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.4% in December to 4.3%. Against this backdrop, lower-than-expected inflation readings, resilient core inflation, and a steady labor market may lead the Fed to keep rates unchanged for a period. Last month, the Fed maintained the benchmark overnight rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.