Bitcoin's Sharp Drop Signals Potential Bear Market Test

Bitcoin is experiencing significant headwinds as it faces another critical juncture. The recent aggressive sell-off has pushed BTC to levels not seen in months, reigniting discussions about whether the market is entering a prolonged bear phase. With technical support zones crumbling and on-chain metrics flashing warning signals, traders are shifting toward a distinctly risk-off stance.

As of February 13, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $68,900, reflecting a notable 4.73% gain in the last 24 hours, yet the broader context remains precarious. The price action reveals a pattern that mirrors historical bear market structures—a reality that has caught the attention of technical analysts and on-chain researchers alike.

The Break Below $80K: When Support Crumbles

The initial shock came when Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 level, a threshold that had previously held as a critical support zone. This drop accelerated further, taking BTC down to around $77,600 as bulls failed to mount a decisive recovery. The loss of this major support level—particularly the true market mean at $80,700—has shifted market psychology from cautious to outright bearish.

What makes this development concerning is how quickly the bounce attempts have faltered. Rather than establishing a floor, each price recovery has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that the psychological significance of the $80K mark has inverted from support to resistance.

Historical Bear Market Patterns: When Technicals Align with History

One of the most telling technical indicators is Bitcoin’s break below the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). Historically, this crossover has frequently preceded extended bear market phases. What makes the current situation noteworthy is that this same pattern appeared in April 2022, just before Bitcoin entered a prolonged decline that tested significantly lower levels.

Since that critical EMA crossover, Bitcoin has declined roughly 17%, moving from $90,000 toward current levels. The parallel with 2022 mechanics has not gone unnoticed by the technical analysis community, with researchers like Rekt Capital pointing out the structural similarities in how the price action is unfolding.

Beyond the immediate drop, the broader concern centers on where the correction might stabilize. Some traders are already discussing sub-$80K scenarios, with $74,400 identified as the next significant support test. More aggressively, analysts have identified $49,180 as a potential longer-term target should the bear market framework continue to develop—a level that would represent a substantial decline from current prices.

Link Between Technical Breakdown and On-Chain Weakness

What elevates the bearish case from mere technical observation to structural concern is the alignment with on-chain data. CryptoQuant’s latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price—the average cost basis of investors holding BTC for 12 to 18 months. Historically, when Bitcoin breaks below realized price and remains there, markets often transition from normal corrections into more structural bearish regimes.

This matters because realized price functions as an overhead resistance during downturns. As the price stays depressed relative to historical cost bases, coin holders—particularly those holding at breakeven—become motivated sellers during any attempted recovery. This dynamic can prevent rallies from gaining traction and extending downside pressure.

The convergence of negative profitability metrics with slowing growth indicators has reinforced the bearish structural setup that characterized previous extended bear markets. On-chain weakness and price weakness are no longer disconnected signals; they’re reinforcing each other.

Short-Term Relief at $84K?

Despite the overwhelmingly bearish structure, there is one potential short-term relief zone worth noting. A CME futures gap exists near $84,000, and historically, such gaps often function as temporary price magnets. Bitcoin could attempt a rebound toward this zone over the coming weeks.

However, this potential bounce should be viewed through a bearish lens—as a temporary relief move rather than a reversal signal. Without a reclamation of major structural support levels (particularly the $80,000+ zone and the 21-week EMA), any bounce toward $84K would likely encounter selling pressure and fail to establish a lasting recovery.

The Broader Bear Market Scenario

The combination of factors—technical breakdown through key levels, repetition of 2022 patterns, on-chain weakness below realized price, and deteriorating profitability—paints a picture consistent with extended bear market phases. While the short-term CME gap bounce remains a possibility, the structural setup suggests downside dominates the risk-reward profile.

Bitcoin is currently testing whether support can be found between current levels and $74,400. If that level fails, the bear market framework could extend the downside discussion toward even deeper targets. The market is no longer positioned for a quick recovery—it’s preparing for the possibility of a more sustained bear phase.

Traders should remain vigilant about risk management in this environment. The drop from $90,000 to current levels signals a meaningful shift in market structure, and the bear case appears increasingly supported by technical, on-chain, and sentiment data alike.