Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, the True Bottom-Fishing Window May Still Be Ahead

Recent Bitcoin price drops below the key levels indicated in the October 31, 2025 report confirm a downtrend. Compared to historical cycles, the magnitude and rhythm of this pullback are highly similar to previous bear market phases. As a result, market discussion has shifted from “whether the trend is turning” to “when the next more attractive allocation window will arrive.”

Looking back at this cycle, we identified the bull market start on October 28, 2022, based on a cycle framework, and projected a top or touchpoint at $125,000 around July 6, 2023. Before the seasonal high at the end of 2024 to October 2025, Bitcoin has repeatedly shown signs that the fifth bull run is nearing its end; with key levels broken, the market has officially entered the bear market confirmation phase.

Against this backdrop, we combined multiple quantitative models—including the one-year moving average, monthly stochastic oscillator, and monthly RSI—to assess the potential timing and price range of the low zone, aiming to determine whether downside risks are largely exhausted and whether the market is beginning to shift from weakness to strength.

Breaking below the one-year moving average, the cycle timeframe points toward 2026

In November 2025, Bitcoin broke below the one-year moving average. Historical experience shows that this signal often marks the start of a bear market, which typically lasts about 12 months. Based on this, the next bull market could begin in Q4 2026, with the cycle’s bottom more likely to occur in Q3 2026.

From a broader macro perspective, we believe Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” is not primarily driven by block reward halving events but is more likely synchronized with the U.S. midterm election cycle. Historical data from 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and the upcoming 2026 midterm elections all coincide with major bear market phases. Compared to halving mechanisms, the regulatory and political uncertainties associated with midterm elections better explain the timing of Bitcoin’s cycle tops and bottoms.

Technical indicators have not yet reached critical thresholds; confirmation of a bottom requires a “reversal”

On the technical side, the monthly stochastic oscillator has historically bottomed out after falling below 15% in the past five cycles, often completing a bottom and then reversing upward within 1–3 months, signaling the end of a bear market. Currently, this indicator is around 39%, still above the critical threshold.

Similarly, the monthly RSI typically forms a key support zone around 48 in historical cycles. Genuine bottom signals often appear during a “break below key levels followed by a reversal” phase. Currently, RSI is around 50, close to the critical zone but without a clear “break and rebound” reversal pattern.

Both core indicators have yet to provide definitive confirmation of a bottom: the market has not yet shown the “final capitulation” reversal confirmation.

Overall, the ultimate low of this bear market may still be ahead. Historical experience suggests Bitcoin tends to bottom out during periods of low volume, diminishing selling pressure, and declining market participation. Rapid declines accompanied by chain liquidations and increased volume are more characteristic of staged capitulation selling rather than the final cycle low.

From the dual perspectives of political cycle analysis and technical indicator validation, we lean toward the view that the real window for re-allocating assets will only open after key monthly indicators reach extreme zones and a reversal is confirmed. Current prices are near historical lows, but reversal signals have yet to appear. Patience remains essential in the late stage of the bear market. A disciplined re-entry depends on confirming the exhaustion of downside momentum, rather than merely judging trend reversal based on proximity to lows.