0212 Bitcoin Daily Report#非农数据大超预期

Yesterday, after an unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll report, the chances of a rate cut were diminished, suppressing market expectations and triggering a correction in risk assets. Currently, the market focus has shifted to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Friday.

Due to a government shutdown causing delays in data release, the latest CPI data is now expected to be published on Friday, with market forecasts indicating a decline compared to last month. Inflation indicators are more important than employment data; if inflation is below expectations, it will increase pressure for an earlier rate cut, which is positive for risk assets. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations, it may reinforce higher interest rates, putting pressure on risk assets.

Institutions clearly state: they are currently on hold, waiting for more definitive catalysts—whether it’s sustained ETF fund inflows, a clearer macro environment, or simply more time for this round of shakeout to propagate through the system. On the other hand, the EU’s ban on all crypto transactions with Russia has turned the net inflow of new Bitcoin investors negative. This is interpreted as a bearish signal because selling pressure has not been fully absorbed by new funds.