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Bitcoin's price drops again. Is this a "second dip" or the start of a new downward wave?

Today during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin once again declined, breaking below the key support level of 68,000 and dropping to around $66,360. The bulls are starting to panic again. Is this decline merely a "second bottom" within the rebound from $59,900, or is it the beginning of a new downtrend? I believe the former is more likely.

👉 Technical indicators suggest a higher probability of a "double bottom" pattern

On the daily chart, after the price bottomed out and rebounded on February 6, the bullish candle completely engulfed the previous day's bearish candle, with higher trading volume than the previous day, showing a typical "bullish engulfing" pattern. Additionally, the trading volume on February 5 and 6 was significantly higher than before, indicating that bottom-fishing funds entered the market. The price broke through the lower Bollinger Band twice and then recovered, showing clear bottom characteristics.

Currently, the 14-day RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone below 30 (around 28) to the 45–50 range, indicating that short-term selling pressure has been significantly released. The RSI has not formed a bearish divergence, and at the February 6 low of $59,900 and the secondary low of $67,000, a bullish divergence is present (price makes a new low, RSI does not), which is a strong technical warning of a trend reversal and suggests bullish momentum is accumulating.

In the past three days of decline, trading volume has remained low, indicating no panic selling. After a sharp rebound, the likelihood of a "second bottom" is higher. Currently, the weekly lower band support is around $65,217. Yesterday's price briefly touched $65,700 before quickly rebounding. The subsequent support at this level could form a "double bottom" pattern, increasing the chances of continued rebound.

👉 From a macro news perspective—strong non-farm payroll data does not change the medium-term expectation of Fed rate cuts

Although yesterday's strong non-farm payroll data showed a booming US labor market, it does not alter the Fed's long-term rate cut strategy. Recently, Trump has publicly stated multiple times that US interest rates are too high. Fed officials like Stephen Mullan have repeatedly called for larger rate cuts, reflecting an increasing consensus within policy circles toward easing. The market generally expects 1-3 rate cuts from the Fed this year. Attention should now turn to the CPI data released on Friday; if inflation continues to decline, expectations for rate cuts in June and July will strengthen.

🔍 Keep a close eye on the 65,000 level

As mentioned earlier, the lower band of the weekly Bollinger Bands around 65,200 provides support. If this week’s correction does not break below this level, a stabilization and rebound are likely. You can consider deploying long positions above this level, with a stop-loss set below $65,000. If this level is broken, the weekly chart will once again pierce the lower band, indicating a new downtrend has begun, and a decisive stop-loss is necessary.
What are your thoughts on the current market? Feel free to leave comments and discuss. Wishing everyone daily prosperity!