$BTC bear case scenario.

anyone saying we drop to 45k, instantly bottom, and rally straight to new ATHs is coping. That’s not how the 4-year cycle has historically played out. Real bottoms take time — months, sometimes close to a year to form structure and rebuild confidence.
If we lose major support even before reclaiming 100k, then expect price to sit in lower ranges for a while. Quick V shape recoveries sound nice, but they aren’t typical in this phase of the cycle.
People keep pushing the narrative that “this time is different.” Fine but that logic goes both ways. If it’s truly different, then extreme upside like $BTC pushing 200k+ this cycle is just as possible.
But if you believe the cycle framework still matters, then a move toward 100k should translate into strong alt expansion, falling $BTC.D, and strength in $ETHBTC. If those relationships don’t show up, then the cycle model itself is breaking and most of the analysis built around it loses relevance.
Pick your framework. Apply it consistently.