Cryptocurrency Crash Risk: Bitcoin's 2022 Crisis Pattern Reappears

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing the same technical setup as the previous bullish cycle, prompting serious warnings from market analysts. In 2022, a similar chart pattern led to a significant drop to $20,000, raising concerns that a crypto crash could occur again.

Currently, BTC is trading at $67,610 (24-hour change -1.59%), but analysts expect further decline from this level.

Technical Analysis Suggests a Drop of Over 20% Scenario

According to technical analyst Crypto Bullet, who posted on X (formerly Twitter), Bitcoin is reproducing remarkably similar chart structures between 2022 and 2025–2026. Analyzing the movements of the 100-day moving average (MA100) and 200-day moving average (MA200) reveals signs that history may repeat itself.

In the 2022 cycle, BTC was first rejected at the MA100 level, then fell to support within the upward channel. It then attempted a new high near $48,500 but was rejected at the MA200. Failing to break through this critical resistance, the downward momentum accelerated, and the price plunged to around $20,000.

Now, Bitcoin is replicating the same pattern in 2026. Chart analysis confirms that both cycles show BTC reaching the market cycle peak, forming a top in December 2023 and November 2025 respectively, then transitioning into an accumulation phase.

According to Crypto Bullet’s forecast, Bitcoin could rise to as high as $102,000 in the short term, but then drop more than 23.5% to $68,450. This crypto crash scenario is based on a complete technical pattern replication.

Contradictory Views from Analysts and Market Sentiment

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Tyrex comments that Bitcoin has been consolidating above $89,000 over the past 48 hours. At the current price level, short-term upside is quite possible, with a rebound toward $92,000 expected.

The overall market sentiment remains bearish, with many traders anticipating further declines in BTC. However, Tyrex warns that such predictions could be market traps. Analyzing the upward channel formed on the chart and current price movements suggests that a more bullish scenario may be hidden behind apparent downward pressure.

The current crypto market faces a situation where technical signals and market psychology are at odds, and short-term price movements versus long-term trends will likely influence investor decisions.