Breaking below 60,000 has kept the market in a repair phase. From on-chain data, the realized losses in this cycle have nearly reached a historical high, while the proportion of profitable supply has dropped to 55%. Almost half of Bitcoin is in a trapped state (similar figures in previous cycles are typical bottom indicators).

Last week, risk assets were severely compressed. The strong rebound after the sharp decline was not led by BTC itself but more like a passive follow of the high-leverage assets in US stocks and precious metals. Tech stocks and gold/silver stabilized, and the crypto market naturally rebounded as well... The reason for such strength is fundamentally due to extremely bearish options skewness and macro shifts forcing short covering. There is no long-term bullish pricing behavior, nor is there active spot market entry. The remaining reason, as we discussed yesterday, is driven by contract leverage, making the high points very fragile.
So far, no breakdown of local highs or lows has occurred, and there are no signs of continued upward momentum today. The sustainability of the rebound is questionable, possibly waiting for tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report. A move to 75K is the limit for now. We’ll take it step by step.