Bitcoin's recent trend has clearly weakened. From January 28 to January 31, Bitcoin declined by approximately 15% in total, with a single-day drop of 10% on January 31, triggering over $2 billion in long contract liquidations. During this period, the price dipped as low as approximately $75,600, breaking below the average cost basis of US Bitcoin ETFs at around $84,000, and approaching the annual low point formed in April 2025 at about $74,400. Currently, approximately 46% of Bitcoin supply is in unrealized loss.

I believe Bitcoin may further decline toward the supply gap bottom near $70,000, and even test the 200-week moving average at around $58,000 and the realized price at approximately $56,000 in the coming weeks to months. The above range has historically corresponded to cyclical bottoms.