Revealing Candle Pavio: Bitcoin Loses Ground Again as Market Reassesses Expectations

Resuming 2026 after the initial euphoria, Bitcoin presents a particularly interesting technical pattern marked by a significant wick on the candle. The asset that started the year near $92,700 is now trading around $77,480, reflecting a 3.5% drop in the last 24 hours. This movement reveals a lot about the current market dynamics, especially when we observe the formation of candles with long wicks — a classic sign of indecision and selling pressure.

The Formation of the Wick: When Bulls Lose Control

The recent chart shows a technical pattern similar to that observed at the end of 2025: an elongated upper wick indicating that buyers couldn’t sustain higher prices. This pattern is particularly significant because it reveals a dynamic where the market tests higher levels but quickly pulls back, leaving a visual trail in the form of this long wick.

The formation repeats cyclically — first in December last year with a failure at the $100,000 resistance, now in February as the price retreats from attempted levels. These long wicks act as a thermometer of sentiment: when the candle body is small but the wick is long, it means there was a fierce struggle between buyers and sellers, but the sellers came out victorious.

Analysts note that this sequence of successive upper wicks suggests weakened demand. Sellers are regaining control, reversing the year’s initial gains and redefining short-term expectations.

Capital Flows Redefine the Scenario

There was an expectation that January would maintain the initial momentum. Indeed, data shows an inflow of $471.3 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs at the beginning of the month, with a total of $57.07 billion in positive flows. However, this enthusiasm did not last.

Deribit data revealed renewed interest in call options with a strike at $100,000, with many contracts traded for January. But as February arrives, part of this optimism dissipates. Transaction volume remains robust at $1.33 billion in 24 hours, but the direction has changed.

Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market fell to 56.78%, slightly below the 59.37% recorded a week earlier. This weakening of dominance suggests that capital is dispersing into altcoins, a typical sign of a more cautious market.

The Altcoin Market Exposes Latent Weakness

Altcoins, which opened January with small gains, now show a more severe correction. Ethereum retreats 7.21% in 24 hours to $2,310. Solana drops 4.29%, while Binance Coin loses 4.95%. Even XRP, often more resilient, declines 1.24%.

This divergent behavior between Bitcoin and altcoins is crucial: while BTC falls 3.5%, altcoins fall more. This indicates that when the market seeks protection, investors move back to Bitcoin — but since Bitcoin itself is under pressure, everything moves downward simultaneously.

Macro Issues Reduce the Safety Horizon

The week brings important economic data from the United States. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data are on the agenda. These releases tend to reorient expectations for monetary policy.

The dollar index continued rising, now trading above 98.50, which historically pressures risk assets like Bitcoin. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.17% also reflects an environment where real interest rates remain elevated.

The Geopolitical Scenario: More Complex Than Promised

Narratives about Venezuelan oil reserves gained space in recent days, but deeper analysis reveals complications. The Orinoco Belt oil is heavy, sour, and full of impurities, requiring substantial investments for extraction and refining. The degraded infrastructure suggests that any increase in production would take years to materialize.

Meanwhile, speculation about a possible hidden Bitcoin reserve controlled by Venezuela — potentially equivalent to that of Strategy, which holds approximately $62 billion in BTC — remains unverified. QCP Capital noted that even if confirmed, capturing these coins by the US and adding them to strategic reserves would reduce the risk of forced sales. However, this remains speculation.

Ether Ends January Under Similar Pressure

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s pattern with its own month-end wick formation. This pattern indicates that intraday gains were reversed, leaving altcoins in a defensive position. The Ethereum staking rate fell 2 basis points to 3.05%, signaling lower relative attractiveness of the protocol at this moment.

Crypto Treasury Assets Retreat Cautiously

Crypto treasury companies are following the movement: Strategy (MSTR) was trading at $163.35 in pre-market, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark are losing ground. These assets, often considered proxies for Bitcoin sentiment, reflect the more cautious environment marking the start of February.

Event Calendar: Minor Changes Expected

Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 3.61% of the circulating supply — equivalent to $329.6 million at the previous price — a potential selling pressure factor. Lighter (LIT) will be listed on BTSE, while Renzo will conduct its third monthly REZ token burn. These movements, however, seem minor compared to the ongoing macro repositioning.

Ether-Bitcoin Ratio Declines in a Defensive Context

The Ether/Bitcoin ratio fell to 0.03418, indicating that Bitcoin is performing relatively better (or falling less) than Ethereum in this defensive cycle. This metric is important because when it drops, it suggests a risk-off environment where capital prefers the more established asset.

What to Expect in the Coming Days

The elongated wick characterizing the current phase is a warning: the market tested upper limits and failed to consolidate. As important macroeconomic data approaches, the likelihood of further downward volatility remains high. The Federal Reserve, although seemingly on pause, maintains a positive real interest rate — a historically challenging environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

The coming days will be decisive in confirming whether this correction is merely technical or signals a deeper reassessment of expectations for 2026. The wick formation suggested to attentive traders that the initial euphoria would not last — and so far, the data confirms this technical reading.