Primaries, electorate, and the crypto cycle: why the pain in 2026 might be different

Western crypto community analysis is filled with one consensus: history repeats itself. Everyone is closely watching the charts, comparing the current situation to 2021, catching every familiar line. But here lies a trap. Over the past 36 months, major investors and experienced traders have experienced enough events to understand: when “everything obvious” works so clearly, most forecasts are wrong precisely because they are too obvious. Especially when not only technical levels are at stake but also political cycles, including upcoming primaries that could reshape entire economic policies.

Three Years of Mistakes: When Statistics Betray

Recall the rebounds on positive news. The launch of a Bitcoin ETF was supposed to cement an upward trend—but instead, there was a correction of -25%. Expectations for an ETH ETF amid optimism resulted in a -60% dump during a bullish market. Four-year Bitcoin halving cycles, once considered the holy grail of predictions, stopped working as classical theory dictated. Fundamental news—geopolitical shocks, changes in administration, banking crises—led not to growth but to sharp declines.

The pattern is simple: the more convinced the crowd is of one outcome, the more the market disappoints them. The current consensus of a downward continuation (similar to 2021) creates the very liquidity that fuels a reversal.

Zero Resistance Trap: When Everyone Expects a Fall

Against the backdrop of growing bearish sentiment, each positive candle is met with the same argument: “According to timing, the bears are already in control, a reversal pattern from 2021 is clearly visible—only down now.” Local hopes that arose two weeks ago during a brief market rebound are fading. If the price drops below the key level of $83,800, bears will gain full confidence in further decline (especially if negative news emerges at the same time).

But this very moment could become a turning point. With such polarization among market participants—when almost everyone believes in a crash—the outcome could be paradoxical: extreme negativity creates conditions for a very strong rebound, capable of rising to $100,000 and above.

Political Cycle as a Dark Horse: Primaries and Changes at the Fed

Here appears a variable that charts do not account for. The US primaries, election campaigns in Western countries, and upcoming personnel reshuffles in the management system create an unusual situation. Amid optimism, the market may interpret any signals of a change in monetary policy (for example, the resignation of the current Fed chair) as positive for risky assets.

Imagine a scenario: a technical reversal is confirmed, the chart breaks above the 2021 pattern, media write that “history does not repeat”—and at this moment, the entire crypto world believes nothing can stop the growth. New administrators promise pro-crypto policies, primaries support digital asset advocates.

Calculated Blow: The Second Bottom and Liquidation Shock

But here begins the real pain scenario. At the peak of euphoria—when it seems salvation is near—a shock hits. The inflation reduction task unexpectedly requires tightening, tariffs and their impacts are underestimated, and liquidations start pushing the price down. According to the second bottom scenario, Bitcoin falls below $75,000. Bitcoin dominance hits a second peak (around the end of the first half of 2026).

At this stage, crypto enthusiasts may think it’s all over. Hope that arose months ago turns into the worst disappointment.

The Final Move: Time for Economy’s Rescuers

When the economy truly hits a dead end, it’s time for “rescue” measures. That’s when those who survive all these cycles of pain and hope get their golden hour. It’s not Trump, not a new Fed chair, and not even crypto enthusiasts in politics—it’s simply the chance that always comes after a crisis.

Important Caution: Uncertainty Remains

Of course, the future is unknown. The scenario described is just a logical chain, one of many possible outcomes, not a prediction. The question remains: are you prepared for such developments if they happen? Most likely not. Perhaps primaries will bring different twists, maybe the political variable will turn out differently. The market still remains a realm of uncertainty.

Current data (January 31, 2026): BTC is trading at $81.41K, ETH at $2.54K.