XRP Collapse in Cycle Phases: When the 50-Week SMA Becomes a Critical Level

Analysis of major phases of the XRP cycle shows a consistent pattern when the currency faces significant losses after breaking below a key technical level. According to well-known crypto analyst Stefa Ice Crypto, this cyclical dynamic has repeated for over ten years, providing the market with clear signals about upcoming movements. Currently, XRP is trading at $1.70, down 3.84% in the last 24 hours, bringing it close again to the critical 50-week moving average.

Historical cycle phases and the role of the 50-week moving average

XRP cycle phases are closely linked to the behavior of the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). When the price drops below this level, the long-term trend shifts to bearish, and the moving average itself transforms from support into resistance. This principle has been repeatedly confirmed across several market cycles since 2015.

The moving average serves as a technical guide, allowing traders and analysts to assess the direction of the long-term trend. When the price is above the SMA, the market is considered bullish; when it falls below this level, a new cycle phase begins, characterized by more significant corrections.

Repeating XRP cycle phases: from 2015 to 2022

The history of XRP demonstrates remarkable consistency in cycle phases following failed recoveries above the 50-week SMA. In 2015, the token experienced a 75.03% decline from its local maximum before beginning to recover. Three years later, in 2018, there was an even sharper drop of 85.77% when the price broke below the key moving average. The most recent example is 2022, when XRP fell by 68.61%, repeating the pattern of previous cycles.

These figures reflect not a coincidence but a formed market dynamic where investors and traders adhere to similar strategies over long periods. Every time the price failed to recover above the 50-week SMA after an initial break, a cycle phase with deep correction followed.

Current price action and the critical point of cycle phases

Over the weekend, XRP showed noticeable weakness, falling from above $2 to $1.84. This decline brought the token closer to the 50-week moving average, creating conditions similar to those observed in previous cycle phases. Despite an attempt to recover in early January, the price could not consolidate above the critical SMA level, reflecting a scenario from historical cycles.

The current price of $1.70 indicates that XRP is on the verge of a new cycle phase. The white line on the analyst’s chart clearly demonstrates how each repeated test of the moving average ended with a downward rebound, initiating prolonged periods of declining prices. This observation confirms that cycle phases associated with breaking below the SMA remain a reliable measure for assessing market trends.

Potential target levels in new cycle phases

If history repeats and XRP cannot stay above the 50-week SMA, the next cycle phase could lead to significant losses. Historical declines ranged from 68% to 85%, which at the current price of $1.70 would place the target range between $0.59 and $0.27. The first level has not been tested since the end of 2024, while the second has not been seen since early 2021.

It is important to note that these calculations are based on historical cycle phases and are not exact forecasts. They provide an analytical framework in which investors can evaluate potential support and resistance levels. Price action around the SMA remains a key factor in understanding the direction of XRP’s next cycle phase.

Conclusion: cycle phases as a market movement indicator

The role of the 50-week moving average in shaping XRP’s cycle phases remains central to technical analysis. The consistent pattern where breaking below the SMA leads to failed recoveries and subsequent declines demonstrates high repeatability across multiple market cycles. If current cycle phases follow the historical scenario, the market should prepare for a potential downturn. However, a quick recovery above the 50-week SMA could break this pattern and initiate a new bullish cycle phase.