Bitcoin drops to $83K amid the global shift to gold

Bitcoin continues to face strong pressure as global investors withdraw funds from high-risk assets to seek traditional safe-haven assets. Gold and silver are experiencing unprecedented price surges, while Bitcoin is currently trading around $83,000 — a significant decline compared to many traders’ expectations. This weakening has reignited debates about whether emerging technological risks such as quantum computing are beginning to impact market sentiment.

Gold Outperforms as Investors Seek Safe Havens

The asset performance gap is widening, especially since Donald Trump won the election in November 2024. Comparative data paints a clear picture:

Gold has increased by 83%, silver skyrocketed by 205%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 24% and the S&P 500 by 17.6%. In contrast, Bitcoin experienced a 2.6% decline during the same period. Gold prices hit a record high near $4,930 per ounce, and silver approached $96 per ounce.

This disparity reflects a clear trend: investors are divesting from high-risk assets and shifting toward traditional value-preserving instruments. Geopolitical tensions, concerns over global public debt levels, and central bank gold accumulation are driving this trend.

Optimistic Forecast for Gold: from $12,000 to $23,000 in 3-8 Years

Analysts estimate that the gold cycle still has significant growth potential. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, predicts gold could reach between $12,000 and $23,000 per ounce over the next three to eight years. This forecast is based on several fundamental factors:

Central banks’ gold reserves are at record levels. The pace of fiat currency supply expansion exceeds 10% annually — a level that traditional gold can help offset. China has increased its gold reserves nearly tenfold in the past two years. Confidence in government bond markets is waning.

Edwards comments, “If this cycle reflects the historic asset expansion of the 20th century, then gold’s upside potential remains substantial.” Although the monthly RSI of gold has reached the highest overbought levels since the 1970s, analysts argue that fundamental demand is the primary driver, not speculation.

Quantum Computing Debate: Real Risk or Unfounded Fear?

Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness has reignited discussions about quantum computing — a theoretical technology capable of breaking current encryption mechanisms. Nic Carter, partner at Castle Island Ventures, recently suggested that Bitcoin’s “mysterious” underperformance might reflect increasing market awareness of the quantum threat.

“Bitcoin’s performance decline is due to quantum technology,” Carter stated. “The market is signaling — but developers are ignoring it.”

However, Carter’s comments have faced strong reactions from blockchain analysis communities and experienced Bitcoin investors.

Market Structure, Not Quantum, Influences Bitcoin

Blockchain researchers argue that attributing Bitcoin’s weakness to fears of quantum computing is a fundamental misunderstanding of current market dynamics. @Checkmatey from Checkonchain explains that Bitcoin’s behavior reflects cycles driven more by supply dynamics than by speculative technological threats.

“Gold is favored because governments are buying gold instead of Treasury bonds,” he notes. “Bitcoin experienced major sell-offs from long-term holders in 2025 — enough to halt bullish markets.”

Vijay Boyapati, a Bitcoin investor and author, offers a more detailed explanation: “The real reason is the massive supply release as Bitcoin approaches $100,000 — a key psychological threshold for institutional investors.” Chain data shows that long-term holders significantly increased their distribution as Bitcoin neared six figures, creating selling pressure and limiting upward momentum.

Bitcoin Needs to Reclaim $91K-$93.5K to Reverse Trend

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains trapped in a narrow accumulation range. To regain bullish momentum, this cryptocurrency must break through the resistance zone of $91,000-$93,500. Failing that, downside support levels will focus between $85,000 and $88,000.

Currently, market participants are focusing on technical support/resistance levels rather than existential long-term risks.

Quantum Risks: Genuine Concern but Still Distant

Although gaining renewed attention, most Bitcoin developers view quantum computing as a long-term manageable risk rather than a short-term market driver. Quantum computers capable of running Shor’s algorithm — which could break elliptic curve cryptography — are still far from practical deployment.

Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, repeatedly affirms that even in worst-case scenarios, immediate or network-wide damage is unlikely. The Bitcoin improvement proposal BIP-360 outlines a roadmap for transitioning to quantum-resistant address formats, allowing gradual upgrades before any credible threat emerges.

Developers emphasize that such transitions would take many years, not just market cycles — making quantum risk unlikely to explain short-term Bitcoin price weakness.

Macro Environment: The Real Decisive Factor

Currently, Bitcoin remains trapped in an unfavorable macroeconomic environment primarily due to:

• Continuing rise in global bond yields
• Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical instability
• Central banks prioritizing gold over other financial instruments
• Investors favoring capital preservation over speculative growth

According to Cointelegraph, until monetary or geopolitical conditions stabilize, Bitcoin is likely to remain more reactive than directional. Meanwhile, gold continues to benefit from a historic shift in global capital flows — a trend that could persist in the near future. Traders should closely monitor technical support/resistance levels until macroeconomic conditions change significantly.