Revised Projections: Atlanta Fed Adjusts Its Economic Growth Forecast for the US in Q4 2025

At the beginning of the year, the Atlanta Federal Reserve revised its projections for U.S. GDP growth, marking an upward adjustment that reflects the evolution of macroeconomic conditions. The GDPNow model, a real-time forecasting tool developed by the central bank, indicates a growth rate of 5.4% for the fourth quarter of 2025, improving the previous estimate of 5.3%.

Upward Adjustment in the Projection Model

This 0.1% increase may seem marginal, but it represents a significant change in the assessment of the U.S. economic trajectory. The adjustment responds to new macroeconomic data that have improved growth prospects for the United States in the analyzed period. The GDPNow model is constantly updated with information on consumer spending, business investment, public expenditure, and the trade balance, factors that together paint a more robust economic outlook than previously anticipated.

Factors Driving the Revision

The upward revision reflects how economic activity indicators evolve during the considered period. Recent data on consumption, employment, and industrial activity have provided positive signals supporting a more dynamic economy than estimated a few weeks ago. This pattern is typical of the GDPNow model, which is distinguished by its ability to capture frequent changes in economic conditions through regular updates.

Implications for Economic Growth

A growth forecast of 5.4% for the United States at the end of 2025 suggests a relatively resilient economy, capable of maintaining a growth pace above the historical average. This trajectory has implications for multiple markets and sectors, particularly in a context where macroeconomic stability remains a key factor in decision-making for global investments, including those in the digital assets sector.