What is the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in January and afterward?

2026-01-31 05:05:53

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According to the latest futures market data, there is high confidence that the Federal Reserve will make no changes to its interest rate policy during January. Analysts observe clear market expectations that reveal the institution’s cautious stance.

Firm Expectations for January According to CME Data

The CME FedWatch tool, which tracks futures rate operations, shows a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its rates unchanged in January. This means the market mainly expects continuity in the current monetary policy. There is only a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to ChainCatcher.

Expected Changes in March Outlook

Expectations for March present a different outlook. The probability of maintaining current rates decreases to 84.1%, while the chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 15.4%. This suggests that the market anticipates a greater willingness from the Federal Reserve to seek monetary adjustments as the quarter progresses. Marginally, there is a 0.6% chance of a deeper 50 basis point cut.

These percentages reflect how the market continually reevaluates the likelihood of rate policy changes as each Federal Reserve decision approaches.

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