Bitcoin fights macroeconomic challenges: seeking a new catalyst for price growth

Bitcoin price continues to experience pressure amid rising geopolitical tensions between the US and the EU. Against this backdrop, market participants are actively discussing what catalyst could bring the digital gold price back above $85,000. The current BTC value is $84.06K, down 0.23% daily, reflecting a fragile balance between bearish pressure and sustained demand for the asset.

When the price demands a solid foundation

Macro economist Luke Gromen suggested that Bitcoin could correct to $60,000 if trade conflicts escalate and the US faces international isolation. He estimates that such a scenario would trigger capital outflows from the crypto sector and mass sell-offs. However, the analyst believes that a strong market catalyst capable of attracting institutional attention would be needed to push the price from current levels to $150,000.

“If you expect large investors to aggressively accumulate assets and drive the price up, that’s unlikely without a serious fundamental catalyst. Institutions don’t act spontaneously — they wait for clear signals,” the expert noted.

As potential growth drivers, Gromen highlighted the adoption of the Clarity Act legislation in the US, which would improve the regulatory climate for the crypto market, as well as the possibility of a new round of quantitative easing by the Fed.

Institutional interest: attraction rather than repulsion

Contrary to fears of a mass exodus of large capital, CEO of the analytical platform CryptoQuant Ki Eun Joo presented a different picture. According to him, wallets of American custodial services hold between 100 and 1000 BTC each, indicating stable institutional demand for Bitcoin price.

Over the past year, large investors added 577,000 BTC worth about $53 billion to their portfolios. Inflows continue despite current volatility. This suggests that, despite short-term price fluctuations, institutional long-term positioning remains strengthening.

ETFs experience correction, but market structure remains resilient

Following the latest trading session, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant capital outflow — $708.7 million. This was the largest daily loss in two months. The biggest loss was suffered by IBIT from BlackRock with a withdrawal of $356.6 million, followed by FBTC from Fidelity ($287.7 million). ETH-based ETFs also suffered, losing $286.9 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA losing $250.3 million.

However, BTC Markets analyst Rachel Lucas believes this dynamic reflects not structural problems but a classic “risk reduction” amid macroeconomic uncertainty. When interest rates rise, geopolitical tensions intensify, or unexpected volatility occurs, institutions typically withdraw capital from high-beta assets first.

“This doesn’t indicate a loss of faith in the assets. It’s just professional risk management,” the expert commented.

Recovery and search for a catalyst

On January 21, the Bitcoin price fell below $88,000 amid a global stock market crash caused by tensions between the US and the EU. However, the market quickly recovered after US President Donald Trump announced an agreement on Greenland and postponed import tariffs from European countries until February.

This short-term recovery demonstrated that the market remains sensitive to political decisions and macroeconomic news. Kronos Research Chief Investment Officer Vincent Liu noted: “Despite the complex macroeconomic context, the cryptocurrency market shows relative resilience as positions normalize and political clarity emerges.”

Thus, the current period is characterized by a search for a true catalyst capable of changing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Such a catalyst could be favorable regulatory initiatives, clear signals from the Fed, or resolution of trade conflicts between global economic centers.