The Shape of the Bitcoin Market in 2026 Will Be Very Different from 2022, According to Analyst Garrett Jin

According to a report by BlockBeats, Garrett Jin, a leading analyst from the BTC OG Insider Whale community, recently shared his analysis on social media regarding the comparison between the current Bitcoin market formation and the conditions that occurred in 2022. While some short-term price characteristics seem to share similar patterns, Jin emphasizes that comparing these two periods without considering the long-term context is a fundamental analytical mistake. Jin’s insights highlight how market shapes have evolved significantly alongside changes in the global macroeconomic environment.

Fundamental Shifts in Macro Economic Conditions

Garrett Jin explained that the macroeconomic situation at the beginning of 2022 was very different from the current market position in early 2026. In 2022, the main capital orientation was risk avoidance and de-risking, with Bitcoin displaying distribution patterns consistent with a tightening phase of the monetary cycle. Currently, the global liquidity index has broken through both significant technical levels—both the short-term and long-term downtrend lines—indicating the emergence of a new and potentially sustainable bullish trend phase.

This change reflects a fundamental shift in the posture of global monetary policy. Unlike 2022, when central banks were still in aggressive tightening mode, the context of 2026 shows liquidity easing that is beginning to provide room for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Technical Formation: From M-Structure to Bullish Breakout

Jin’s market shape analysis identifies crucial differences in the formation of technical structures. During 2021-2022, Bitcoin exhibited a characteristic weekly M-structure, a formation generally associated with long-term cycle peaks that lead to prolonged price pressure. Currently, Bitcoin is in the process of breaking out of a weekly upward channel, creating a fundamentally different dynamic.

From a probability and historical pattern perspective, the current situation resembles a bearish trap scenario before a strong rebound back into the bullish channel. Jin emphasizes that although the possibility of a bearish market cannot be entirely eliminated, technical factors indicate more favorable opportunities for bullish positioning.

More Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio

The consolidation range between $80,850 and $62,000 has experienced a very significant rotation. The digestion phase and processing of previous positions create a healthier foundation for the next price rally. Based on risk-reward calculations, bullish positioning offers a much greater upside potential compared to the downside risk that can be tolerated.

Considering Bitcoin’s current price at $84.13K, this level is within a consolidation zone that has undergone significant rotation. For a sustained bearish scenario targeting lower levels, Jin indicates that specific conditions must be met: a new inflation shock, a geopolitical crisis on a scale comparable to 2022, and central banks returning to tightening by raising interest rates or conducting balance sheet quantitative tightening. Additionally, a consistent and sustained penetration below the $80,850 level is necessary to confirm a structural reversal.

Until these critical conditions are met, claiming that a structural bear market is developing is more speculation than a solid analytical conclusion.

Changes in Investor Composition: From Retail Speculators to Institutions

The most substantial difference between today’s Bitcoin investor ecosystem and that of 2022 is a fundamental transformation in the ownership base composition. 2022 was characterized by a crypto-native bearish market, triggered by panic selling from retail investors with high leverage and widespread chain liquidations. That period reflected a market highly vulnerable to volatile retail sentiment.

In contrast, Bitcoin has now entered a more mature institutional era. The contemporary market shape is marked by stable fundamental demand from institutional accumulators, long-term locked supply, and volatility driven by institutional-level dynamics. This shift not only reflects market growth but also a fundamental transformation in the character and structure of market participants themselves.