Technical outlook after BTC triangle pattern breakout

Bitcoin experienced a significant technical breakdown during the evening session, with the hourly triangle pattern being breached. This change indicates a potential shift in market structure. Currently, BTC price is oscillating around $83.97K, and the subsequent trend requires close attention to multiple key support and resistance levels.

The Meaning of Isolated Highs and Triangle Breakdowns

On the hourly timeframe, Bitcoin has formed an isolated high above the triangle. The appearance of this pattern suggests that the price range is acting as strong resistance, reflecting that the buying momentum of the bulls has waned at this level. The breakdown of the triangle indicates that overall selling pressure has been released, and short-term bears are in control. When the close occurs below the triangle, it usually signals that lower target levels will become the next key objectives.

Currently, the highs are continuously declining, and the market has not yet formed lower lows. If a rebound fails to break through the triangle and re-enter the upper consolidation zone, the corresponding price target is 89,885. This level serves as an important threshold for the short-term rebound to stabilize.

Support and Resistance Analysis Across Multiple Timeframes

Hourly Layout: For Bitcoin at the 89,947 level, a cautious approach is recommended when shorting on the left side of the rebound point. If the price drops below 88,560 with increased volume, testing the right side of the rebound and re-shorting is an option. However, note that the risk-reward ratio at this level is not ideal; unless the price falls below the previous low of 87,205, the stop-loss space is too large. In such cases, a “quick profit-taking” strategy is generally more prudent.

If the hourly price can break and hold above 89,465, attention can shift to the 90,140–90,590 zone. If the price fails to effectively hold above 89,465, the rebound strength will be insufficient to sustain a continuous push upward.

4-Hour Layout: After breaking below 88,843 on the 4-hour chart, the downside target is set between 88,163 and 87,290. If 88,843 is not reclaimed, testing the previous low is imminent. Additionally, the Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour timeframe shows that the rebound has not even effectively broken through the basic 38.2% level, indicating that the current rebound momentum is clearly lacking.

Fibonacci Tools and Rebound Strength Assessment

Fibonacci levels are used in technical analysis to gauge the strength of rebounds. When a rebound breaks through the 38.2% level, a preliminary reversal signal is formed; breaking the 61.8% level confirms a full reversal. Currently, the 4-hour rebound has not even successfully crossed the fundamental 38.2% threshold, which directly reflects the limited strength of this rebound.

From this perspective, maintaining the current sideways consolidation is already a significant achievement. The yellow resistance around 90,586 has been tested multiple times but failed each time. Given the difficulty in breaking upward, the market will naturally look for support levels below.

Trend Forecast and Key Observation Points

If the hourly timeframe is to complete the AB=CD pattern, Bitcoin will inevitably revisit the previous low of 87,128. The only way to prevent this retracement is to achieve a breakout at point C. If C cannot be broken, then the retracement to D becomes an almost unavoidable trend.

For traders, the key at this stage is the volume performance. Close attention must be paid to whether trading volume can effectively support the price movement, as this is often a crucial factor in distinguishing between genuine breakouts and false signals. Whether the triangle breakdown is confirmed by volume will directly influence the strength of the next phase.

Overall, the dual pressures on the hourly and 4-hour charts are still present. The triangle breakdown has already released some downside pressure. The market should focus on the effectiveness of key support levels while continuously monitoring volume changes.