Bitcoin and its holders at a critical point: selling pressure accelerates correction towards $84K

The Bitcoin market faces a critical moment as the price retreats to $84.44K, reflecting simultaneous selling pressure from both whales and long-term holders. On-chain data reveal that both groups are distributing positions during recoveries, increasing the risk of a deeper correction toward the support zone of $84,000–$86,000.

Whales and long-term holders trigger simultaneous sell alarms

During Tuesday’s trading session in New York, Bitcoin plunged below the psychological level of $90,000, extending losses as overall market sentiment deteriorated. The most concerning aspect is that two strategic investor groups are orchestrating a coordinated divestment move that exposes critical vulnerabilities.

According to CryptoQuant data, large wallets deposited over $400 million in Bitcoin on spot exchanges on January 20— a pattern historically linked to sell preparations or increased liquidity on the sell side. “This marks the second significant peak of BTC deposits in a short period,” noted analyst Amr Taha. A comparable inflow of $500 million occurred just five days earlier, on January 15, highlighting institutional distribution intensity.

Massive deposits on exchanges: a sign of imminent distribution

Movements by these large investors serve as early indicators of volatility. “High BTC deposits on spot exchanges generally indicate short-term selling pressure,” Taha explained, noting that such flows often precede price weakness in subsequent days.

However, the story does not end with whale behavior. Long-term holders—traditionally seen as market stabilizers—are sending their own warning signals.

Long-term holders break with accumulation pattern

Glassnode data reveal that long-term holders (LTH) have maintained a negative net position change since early January. Approximately 68,650 BTC were sold over the past 30 days, a volume that underscores the extent of the distribution move.

What’s troubling is that these extended-horizon investors are liquidating precisely during recoveries—such as the recent rally toward $97,000. Instead of accumulating during strength, long-term holders are securing profits, reinforcing the current corrective structure. Nonetheless, analysts recall that similar levels of LTH selling were observed in mid-December 2025, just before Bitcoin recovered from $84,000 to $94,700 in January, offering a possible parallel for optimists.

Technical levels under pressure: where will Bitcoin find resistance?

With Bitcoin currently trading near $84.44K, analysts are closely monitoring several critical technical support lines:

• $87,300: 100-week simple moving average (SMA100)
• $84,000–$86,000: Historical high-demand zone and psychological support
• $80,500: November local low—target for more pronounced decline

A sustained break below the 50-day SMA near $90,000 and the 20-day EMA around $92,000 would open the door for testing lower supports. Technical indicators are sending mixed messages: while some suggest imminent oversold conditions, others warn of potential further weakness.

Market analysis: a temporary rebound or a deeper correction?

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, warns that Bitcoin is now trading again within its broader range as geopolitical risks intensify. “Bitcoin is breaking down into the range as geopolitical uncertainty worsens,” he wrote on X, noting that momentum indicators are dangerously approaching oversold levels.

His analysis points to a possible short-term relief bounce between $84,000 and $86,000, but emphasizes that no confirmed trend reversal has occurred. “The RSI is as oversold as during the collapse toward $80,000. We might see a rebound, not a reversal,” van de Poppe warned, highlighting the fragility of the current bullish scenario.

Can holders restore confidence at $90K?

For bulls, regaining and holding levels above $90,000 remains critical to restoring institutional and retail confidence. However, as whale inflows on exchanges remain elevated and long-term holder distribution continues without stabilization, Bitcoin is likely to remain vulnerable to downside volatility.

Analysts warn that the combined pressure from both investor groups—whales distributing via exchanges and long-term holders liquidating gains—paints a complex picture. The $84,000 zone will need to demonstrate again its capacity to act as a structural floor. For now, the market remains trapped between distribution at higher levels and a defensive stance, with traders closely watching whether macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions will continue to pressure risk assets.