Bitcoin 2026: From Cartoon Bears to the New Organization Era

Factors driving the Bitcoin market today are significantly different from those in 2022. According to analysis from BlockBeats, Garrett Jin, representative of the ‘BTC OG Insider Whale’ group, recently shared insightful observations about the structural differences between these two periods. Although some short-term price patterns may appear similar, the global economic context and market mechanisms have changed entirely, making direct comparisons unfounded.

Different Market Drivers Between the Two Periods

In early 2022, the prevailing market sentiment was risk aversion, with Bitcoin exhibiting a classic tightening cycle. In contrast, currently, the US liquidity index has broken both long-term and short-term downtrend lines, indicating the start of a new bullish trend. This difference clearly reflects a shift: from retail panic selling during bearish “cartoon bear” phases to confident institutional investor participation.

During 2021–2022, Bitcoin formed weekly M-top structures, often associated with long-term cycle peaks leading to prolonged downturns. Now, Bitcoin is breaking out of a weekly upward channel, a clear signal contrasting with the wild “cartoon bears” of the past.

Technical Structure: From M-Top to Uptrend Channel

From a statistical probability perspective, the current situation resembles temporary bear traps before a recovery into the main trend channel. The price range of $80,850/$62,000 (around the current level of approximately $83,070) has undergone strong consolidation and significant movement. Digesting old positions provides an optimal risk-reward ratio for investors, with potential upside outweighing downside risks.

While a market downturn cannot be entirely ruled out, for this scenario to occur, new inflation shocks or geopolitical crises of similar scale to 2022 would be necessary, along with central banks tightening monetary policy or shrinking their balance sheets. Additionally, a decisive and sustained decline below $80,850 would be required.

Risk-Reward Ratio and Bear Market Conditions

Until these conditions are met, concluding that a sustainable bear market is underway is premature. Such an approach is more speculative than objective analysis. Bitcoin investors in this 2026 cycle have a different mindset and behavior compared to 2022. In 2022, Bitcoin experienced a typical “pure crypto bear market” driven by retail panic and successive chain liquidations.

Transition from Cartoon Bears to Institutional Holding

Today, Bitcoin has entered a more mature era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and volatility at the institutional level. The most profound difference lies in the shift from cartoon bears—volatile situations driven by retail trading and high leverage—to long-term structured holding driven by institutions. This change marks a significant turning point: from panic selling cycles to planned accumulation cycles.

The current Bitcoin market structure is no longer the playground of highly leveraged individual traders but has become an asset managed with long-term strategies by institutional investors. This explains why direct comparisons to 2022 are no longer valid—past cartoon bears have given way to a market with higher structure and predictability.