The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, BTC remains silent, this is not dovish, but a 'stalling tactic'. On January 29, the Fed summarized with one statement: interest rates stay unchanged, inflation is still high, and the economy can still withstand it. In plain language: I’m not in a hurry, you guys just endure it first. So the question is: Is this a defensive stance now, or an early positioning for risk assets? My answer is straightforward: allocate more defensively, but not fully exit risk assets. First, let’s talk macro. This statement is neither hawkish escalation nor dovish turn, but a typical 'time buy for space.' As long as inflation isn’t fully dead and the economy isn’t collapsing, the Fed has no reason to give the market sugar. The implication for BTC is only one: short-term valuation faces upward pressure, but there are buyers at the bottom. What does BTC’s current state resemble? Like a diner who has finished the main course but the dessert hasn’t been served yet. You ask him to leave? He won’t leave; you ask him to order again? He hesitates. As for altcoins? The structure is already very clear: funds only recognize narratives, not 'I can do it too.' Coins without fundamentals, liquidity, or new stories are only suitable as 'time cost samples' in a high-interest-rate environment. So how do I see the rhythm? * Short-term: suppression is reality, especially for high Beta altcoins * Mid-term: digestion rather than collapse, BTC still holds a 'defensive position' among risk assets. One sentence summary: It’s not the season for all-in, but also not the time to fully exit and run away. This is a market to hold back, choose the right structure.