Bitcoin maximalists discuss: Reasons for falling behind gold and the potential for a reversal

As of January 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a 13.27% decline over the past year, while gold has shown an increase of over 80%. This significant disparity is shaking the confidence of many investors in digital assets and raising fundamental questions such as “Is Bitcoin truly digital gold?” However, Bitcoin maximalists see this phenomenon not as a mere failure but as a major turning point in market structure, and this perspective is gaining attention within the industry.

While gold rises 80%, reasons for BTC decline

In an environment of high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and interest rate uncertainties, traditional inflation-hedging assets like gold are rapidly attracting buy orders. Theoretically, assets that protect against inflation should rise when currency values fall, and this theory is fully functioning for gold. On the other hand, Bitcoin, known as “digital gold,” is currently unable to fulfill the same role.

Why is this divergence occurring? Many market observers interpret Bitcoin’s weakness as a collapse in long-term demand. However, Bitcoin maximalists challenge this view. They argue that the current downturn in Bitcoin is merely a temporary phenomenon and instead reflects a profound shift in market structure.

Oversupply or demand loss: Maximalists’ argument

Among Bitcoin maximalists, there is a growing view that the current price stagnation is “not a demand issue but a supply redistribution event.” While institutional investment inflows are substantial, they are said to only absorb about ten years’ worth of supply from early adopters. In other words, what we are witnessing is not a loss of interest but a large-scale transfer of ownership.

In this process, Bitcoin held by early-stage holders is released into the market and absorbed by institutional investors’ ETFs and new entrants. Although this structural reorganization may suppress prices in the short term, maximalists believe it could lead to market maturity and stability in the long run.

Psychological advantage: “Muscle memory” for traditional assets

An interesting perspective from Bitcoin maximalists attributes the rise of gold to a psychological mechanism called “muscle memory.” During uncertain times, institutional investors tend to lose foresight and automatically retreat to familiar assets. Currently, those “familiar assets” remain gold and silver.

Despite Bitcoin having been around for over 15 years and having demonstrated sufficient technical stability at the protocol level, the traditional asset management industry still views Bitcoin as an emerging technology. This perception gap limits capital inflows into digital assets.

Correlation and rotation: Possibility of delayed buyback

Another key point pointed out by Bitcoin maximalists is the high correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks. They see Bitcoin’s current slump not necessarily as a failure of Bitcoin itself but as being linked to the retreat of internet-related stocks. In fact, Bitcoin has always maintained a strong correlation with tech stocks since its inception.

Many maximalists anticipate a delayed rotation of capital. After traditional real assets become excessively overvalued, investors’ focus will shift toward Bitcoin, which has become relatively undervalued. Looking at the ratio of GLD (gold ETF) to BTC (Bitcoin), it has already reached a historical standard deviation level, indicating a potential reversal is building up, according to maximalists.

The macro environment of 2026: Re-evaluation of Bitcoin

Considering the macroeconomic environment of 2026 and the level of global money supply, Bitcoin is currently considered to be significantly undervalued, according to Bitcoin maximalists. While gold may be supported temporarily by political distractions, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the ongoing growth of its network could outperform gold over multi-year horizons in terms of returns.

The view that “digital gold has failed” is seen by maximalists as premature noise. They emphasize that Bitcoin is not just an “inflation hedge” but a “permanent solution” in the digital age. The period during which traditional real assets enjoy their current high valuations is limited, and many Bitcoin maximalists share an optimistic outlook that eventually Bitcoin will surpass them.