Adler's detection of Bitcoin RSI bearish warning signal

According to recent technical analysis released by crypto quant Bitcoin analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin is facing a critical turning point. Adler’s analysis, reported by PANews, indicates that BTC is currently under significant correction pressure, and key indicators that will determine the future market direction are simultaneously weakening.

Consecutive Price Corrections and Simultaneous Weakening of Technical Indicators

Over the past three months, Bitcoin’s price has declined by 19.7% (approximately $21,500), with a cumulative drop of 10.5% (about $10,400) since the beginning of the year. While short-term prices are showing temporary stability (weekly +1.5%, monthly -0.5%), the more notable concern is the deterioration of momentum indicators. The current monthly RSI stands at 56.5, significantly below the 12-month moving average of 67.3.

The most dangerous signal Adler emphasizes is that the RSI is approaching within just 2 points of the 4-year moving average (58.7). Historically, instances where this indicator drops below the 4-year line are rare, and such cases have often been followed by deeper bear markets.

Critical Judgment Point Highlighted by Adler

Adler predicts that the next 1 to 2 months will be a very critical period. If the RSI remains within a narrow range between 55 and 58, there is a possibility of recovery. However, if it continues to decline below 55, it could lead to a trend reversal into a bear market.

Market Signal Interpretation and Investor Choices

This technical warning serves as an important criterion for determining whether the current price correction is merely a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a larger downtrend. Adler emphasizes that investors should closely monitor subtle movements in RSI to understand the true market sentiment.