Copper Market In-Depth Analysis: How Far Will the 2026 Structural Shortage and Price Rally Go?

By the end of 2025, the copper market experienced an unexpected upheaval. Surpassing a record high of $12,000 per ton, it soared over 30% annually, marking the largest increase without a significant correction since 2009. Analyzing the background of this surge reveals that beyond simple market fluctuations, there are signals of structural change lurking beneath.

Renewable Energy, AI, and Copper Demand as the ‘Green Engine’

The primary driver behind the rapid rise in copper prices is undoubtedly demand-side changes. The shift to renewable energy, industrial electrification, and the surge in AI data center construction are continuously fueling demand for copper.

Natalie Scott-Gray, chief metal demand analyst at StoneX, pointed out that high prices are altering manufacturers’ behavior patterns. As copper prices rise, companies are beginning to seek alternative materials. While copper cannot be fully replaced in core industries, demand suppression is increasingly possible in non-essential sectors.

Global vs. Regional, Inventory Imbalances Sending Signals

An even more intriguing aspect is the extreme imbalance in global copper inventories. While the COMEX inventory hit an all-time high due to massive inflows caused by U.S. tariffs, London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks plummeted below 20,000 tons.

This regional disparity is a signal for the global market. Albert Mackenzie, an analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, analyzed that the surge in U.S. inventories actually amplified supply concerns. This is because uneven distribution of inventories increases the risk of supply disruptions.

Structural Supply Shortage in 2026, Building Consensus Among Experts

Alastair Munro, a non-ferrous metals strategist at Marex, emphasized that the market widely anticipates a structural copper supply shortage starting in 2026. This indicates a fundamental deficiency in supply mechanisms, not just a temporary imbalance of supply and demand.

Similarly, Alice Fox, a strategist at Macquarie Group, reached the same conclusion. It is highly likely that copper prices will remain high in 2026, implying that the structural supply-demand imbalance will not be resolved in the short term.

Market Analysis Conclusion: Continuation of Bullish Trend

Overall, the outlook for the copper market through 2026 remains bullish. The structural demand increase driven by renewable energy and AI, supply risks caused by regional inventory imbalances, and manufacturers’ optimization efforts all exert upward pressure on prices. While demand suppression due to high prices is a variable, broad consensus among experts suggests this will be limited.