Michael Saylor's Guidance on the Bitcoin Market: How Accelerated Institutional Adoption Will Bring a Turning Point in 2025

In early 2026, Strategy founder and chairman Michael Saylor emphasized that the true victory for Bitcoin over the past year lies not in price fluctuations but in the establishment of a systemic foundation. Through a detailed interview on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast, the guidance he presents suggests more than just an investment thesis; it hints at structural changes across the entire financial market.

Three Institutional Turning Points That Changed 2025: Positive Regulatory Guidance

2025 brought a historic leap for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Saylor points out that the achievements of this year can be summarized along three axes.

Rapid Expansion of Institutional Adoption. Companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets surged from 30–60 in the previous year to about 200 by the end of 2025. This expansion indicates a shift where Bitcoin is recognized not merely as a speculative asset but as part of corporate capital strategies.

Fundamental Changes in Insurance, Accounting, and Regulation. Saylor himself began holding Bitcoin in 2020 and experienced being outside insurance coverage for four years. However, in 2025, the insurance system was revived, and the introduction of fair value accounting allowed companies to recognize unrealized gains as profits. Furthermore, government authorities officially recognized Bitcoin as a major digital commodity, with guidance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expressing support, leading to a dramatic regulatory environment shift.

Accelerated Integration of Banking Systems and Market Infrastructure. At the start of the year, it was difficult to obtain loans collateralized by Bitcoin worth $1 billion. By the end of the year, nearly all major U.S. banks had begun offering loans secured by IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF), and a quarter of banks planned to offer BTC-collateralized loans. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley are considering full-scale Bitcoin trading and processing. Additionally, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) commercialized derivatives markets, introducing a tax-free exchange mechanism between Bitcoin worth $1 million and an equivalent amount of IBIT.

Bitcoin as a “Universal Capital” Like Electricity: Saylor’s Rephrasing of Its Essence

Saylor emphasizes that short-term price fluctuations should not cause undue excitement or concern. Despite Bitcoin reaching a new high 95 days ago, market participants expressing dissatisfaction with falling prices is a misinterpretation of its core value. Looking at the history of ideological movements over the past 10,000 years, people dedicated to something tend to think in ten-year spans. Saylor points out that evaluating Bitcoin’s performance with a four-year moving average reveals a clear bullish trend.

A key redefinition Saylor offers is the concept of Bitcoin-holding companies. Just as factories with power infrastructure utilize electricity as a universal capital, Bitcoin is a form of universal capital in the digital age. Even loss-making companies can enhance their enterprise value by holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, as unrealized gains increase their worth. For example, a company recording a $10 million annual loss could hold $100 million worth of Bitcoin and realize a $30 million capital gain, which is a rational business decision.

Saylor also offers a different perspective on criticism of Bitcoin-holding companies. There are approximately 400 million companies worldwide, all of which could potentially purchase Bitcoin. Yet, concerns about whether the market can accept only about 200 companies entering include a fundamental misunderstanding. He also disputes the notion that Bitcoin-holding companies are “purely financial entities,” reframing them as entities with a role in credit creation.

The Massive Guidance of the Digital Credit Market: Strategy’s Strategy and the $10 Trillion Potential

Strategy’s business strategy is based on the guidance of reconstructing the credit market in the digital capital era, rather than merely providing financial services. Saylor states that the company will not enter banking but instead focus on developing digital credit products that leverage dollar reserves to enhance corporate creditworthiness.

The essence of their business, as Saylor rephrases, is creating products with theoretically unlimited market expansion potential. For instance, assuming a dividend yield of 10% and a Book Value Ratio (B/V) of 1–2 for listed products, capturing 10% of the U.S. Treasury bond market would amount to a $10 trillion market size. Compared to traditional banking credit, senior credit, and corporate credit markets, the digital credit market is far from saturated; it is still in its infancy.

In Strategy’s vision, various financial products backed by Bitcoin (derivatives, exchanges, insurance) could be developed one after another. Currently, no insurance companies utilize Bitcoin as collateral or capital. This vast uncharted territory is at the core of the guidance Saylor presents.

From a corporate valuation perspective, Saylor highlights an important legal point: the value of a business’s stock is influenced not only by current capital utilization but also by future feasibility. Projects not yet implemented do not necessarily mean they are impossible. This rephrasing demonstrates confidence in Strategy’s future growth potential.

Saylor concludes that institutional adoption of Bitcoin signals more than just a trading trend; it indicates a fundamental restructuring of the financial markets. In three layers—positive regulatory guidance, entry of financial institutions, and market infrastructure development—the Bitcoin ecosystem is undergoing a structural transformation, and its impact is expected to expand over the coming years.