Has the outlook on the Bitcoin market been rephrased? Mr. Saylor discusses the institutional shift in 2025 and the prospects for 2026

Michael Saylor, Founder and Chairman of Strategy, offers a new perspective on the ongoing market discussions surrounding Bitcoin. His remarks on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast reveal a significant shift from traditional investment valuation metrics focused on short-term price fluctuations to a long-term view emphasizing institutional and infrastructural adoption. It is necessary to revisit and reorganize how this viewpoint should be rephrased.

What Does “Fundamental Victory” for Bitcoin Mean—Implications of Institutional Adoption by 2025

The most pivotal turning point Saylor points out for 2025 lies not in price but in progress on the institutional front. The number of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin surged from 30–60 in 2024 to approximately 200 by the end of 2025. Behind this figure is a rational corporate decision-making process, not mere speculative buying.

The expansion of institutional adoption has been progressing simultaneously across multiple domains. One such area is the revival of insurance coverage. Saylor himself experienced the cancellation of his insurance policy when purchasing Bitcoin in 2020. The four-year period during which he had to cover his personal assets has seen a major turnaround by 2025. The introduction of fair value accounting principles now allows unrealized capital gains from Bitcoin holdings to be recognized as profits, and tax treatments have been clarified.

Changes in government and regulatory attitudes are also noteworthy. When the U.S. government officially recognized Bitcoin as the world’s leading and largest digital commodity, a fundamental shift in the financial system began. Integration into the banking system has accelerated rapidly. At the start of the year, lending secured by Bitcoin worth $1 billion was difficult, but by year-end, most major U.S. banks had begun offering loans collateralized by IBIT (Bitcoin ETFs), with about a quarter planning direct Bitcoin collateralized loans. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley are also discussing trading and processing Bitcoin.

Market infrastructure is also maturing at an accelerated pace. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has advanced the commercialization of Bitcoin derivatives, implementing a tax-free exchange mechanism between Bitcoin worth $1 million and IBIT. When these elements come together, Bitcoin should be seen not merely as a speculative asset but as a part of the financial system—a stage at which it can be rephrased as such.

Short-term Price Predictions Are Meaningless—Bitcoin’s Position from a Long-term Perspective

At the core of Saylor’s view is a fundamental skepticism toward evaluating Bitcoin’s success based on short-term price fluctuations. He points out that analyzing market trends over 100-day periods can distort the intrinsic value assessment. Despite Bitcoin reaching a new high 95 days ago, a short-term decline should not negate the overall progress; such a conclusion would be a mistake.

This way of thinking stems from Bitcoin’s fundamental design philosophy. The idea that time preference should be kept low aligns with Bitcoin’s ethos and is incompatible with speculative short-term trading. Historically, individuals who have succeeded in ideological movements have demonstrated decade-long dedication. Cases requiring 20 or 30 years are not uncommon.

Saylor emphasizes that evaluating Bitcoin’s performance using a 4-year moving average reveals a markedly bullish trend. What does it mean to predict prices 90 or 180 days ahead?—this question prompts a rephrasing of traditional investment valuation metrics. The industry is moving in the right direction, and network growth remains robust. Past 90 days of price declines can be reinterpreted as an optimal opportunity for informed investors to increase their Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin = Universal Capital in the Digital Age—Rationality of Corporate Holdings

Another insight Saylor stresses is Bitcoin’s fundamental role. Criticizing companies holding Bitcoin as merely financial firms is a fundamental misunderstanding, he argues. Just as electricity is a universal capital powering all machinery, Bitcoin is a universal capital in the digital era.

The rationality behind corporate Bitcoin purchases can be rephrased from multiple angles. Even a loss-making company can increase its value if a large Bitcoin holding on its balance sheet generates capital gains. For example, a company with an annual loss of $10 million that holds $100 million worth of Bitcoin and realizes a $30 million capital gain would see its performance improve. The real criticism should not be about companies buying Bitcoin but about their ongoing losses.

Out of approximately 400 million companies worldwide, the number capable of purchasing Bitcoin is a small fraction—this underestimates the market size. In theory, all 400 million could participate in Bitcoin purchases. The criticism should not be directed at companies that do not buy Bitcoin but rather at those that do, leveraging it for value creation. Analogous to factories with power infrastructure, Bitcoin-holding companies are making rational choices to enhance productivity.

A New Rephrasing: Digital Credit Market—Strategy’s Future Outlook

The most revolutionary rephrasing of Saylor’s views concerns Strategy’s business approach. The company’s goal is not to build a banking business but to develop a “Digital Credit” market based on Bitcoin as digital capital.

This strategy is rooted in the recognition that there is almost unlimited potential for market expansion. Strategy’s digital credit products (STRC) are modeled on listed securities with a 10% dividend yield and valuation levels of 1 or 2. If they capture 10% of the U.S. Treasury bond market, the potential market size could reach $10 trillion.

Saylor states that the reason for not expanding into banking is to maintain focus. Creating the world’s best digital credit products can lead to a transformation of the currency system, banking system, and credit markets. Competing with customers is considered the most foolish act; instead, holding dollar reserves to enhance corporate creditworthiness is the strategic approach.

Buyers of credit products seek to avoid volatility in Bitcoin and stocks. Therefore, the mere presence of dollar reserves enhances the attractiveness of these products. For example, in the Japanese market, how does the value of a company that can offer a 6% yield—compared to others offering only 2%—change?—this rephrasing illustrates the potential of Strategy’s business model.

Integration of Institutionalization, Commercialization, and Globalization—Outlook Beyond 2026

Saylor’s vision for the Bitcoin market in 2026 involves the integration of multiple elements discussed above. When the necessary components for asset commercialization, globalization, and institutionalization are in place, Bitcoin will be rephrased as a completely different entity.

Regarding market size, Saylor’s view is clear. The trend of listed companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets will accelerate and eventually become a standard part of corporate strategy. Through the creation of a new category—“Digital Credit”—rather than traditional banking, a reorganization of the entire financial system could occur.

The overarching message in Saylor’s entire discourse is that Bitcoin should be rephrased from a traditional investment target into an institutional foundation. Moving away from short-term price predictions and adopting a long-term perspective focused on institutionalization, corporate adoption, and market infrastructure development is key to understanding the essence of the Bitcoin era.