#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Market Analysis Today

If we compare the past cryptocurrency market to a “street vendor” operating without a license, running around and risking having their stall taken by city regulators at any moment, then a series of recent news essentially announces that this vendor has not only obtained a business license but even the city enforcement team is now stepping in to help him drum up business. The most significant news is the upcoming joint meeting between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) scheduled for January 27. In the past, these two agencies were like “cats and dogs” in the crypto world, constantly fighting over who should regulate and how to penalize. Now, they are actually sitting together to discuss how to implement Trump’s “Global Crypto Capital” agenda. This indicates a fundamental reversal in regulatory logic: from “crack down first” to “set rules first and then act.” This shift from “law enforcement” to “legislation” marks the ultimate watershed for the industry’s transition from the fringe to the mainstream.
This change in direction is most directly reflected in “clearing old accounts.” The SEC has withdrawn its civil lawsuit against the Gi exchange, and it’s a complete withdrawal—meaning they are no longer allowed to sue in the future. This was almost unimaginable in the past. Over the past few years, the SEC has been like a strict instructor with a magnifying glass, ready to label any financial product as “illegal securities” if you dared to create one. Now, the instructor has not only put away the whip but also returned the confiscated teaching tools. This “rectification” sends a very strong signal: the era of regulating through lawsuits is over.
Meanwhile, Grayscale has seized the opportunity to submit an ETF application for BNB. If Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are considered “appetizers,” then a token like BNB, with its strong platform attributes, if approved as an ETF, would be akin to official recognition of exchange tokens’ legitimacy. This is not only a big gift for Binance but also opens a door for the entire industry to access traditional financial markets.
Speaking of traditional finance, Binance is also not idle. They plan to relaunch the “stock token” trading that was halted four years ago. In simple terms, it means allowing you to buy stocks of Apple or Tesla on a crypto exchange just like buying Bitcoin. This is essentially a “reduction of dimension” attack. Previously, to buy US stocks, you had to open an account, exchange currencies, and endure cross-border transfer hassles; now, if you can buy stocks directly with stablecoins, cryptocurrencies truly become a bridge connecting to real assets. Although current data shows that out of the $35 trillion in stablecoin settlement volume last year, only 1% was actually used for real-world purchases like bubble tea or payroll, with the remaining 99% still circulating within the crypto space, this highlights enormous potential. As stocks, bonds, and even banking licenses (such as Trump-related World Liberty Bank) start trading on the crypto track, that 1% of real-world applications will rapidly expand like a snowball.
Finally, we need to look at the macro-level “money bag” movements. Silver prices broke through $100, hitting a record high, which is a big event in the investment circle. Usually, the “old money” like gold and silver rises first, followed by Bitcoin, the “digital gold,” leading the rally, and then various altcoins follow. The surge in silver often indicates that there is an excess of idle funds in the market. Coupled with Arthur Hayes’ mention of the yen exchange rate logic—if the Federal Reserve starts easing to stabilize global exchange rates, then for assets like Bitcoin, which are extremely sensitive to liquidity, it’s like pouring gasoline on a fire. The current situation is: the policy “straitjacket” has been removed, the “connective bridge” is in place, and the macro “great flood” is coming soon. We are standing at the crossroads of an end to an old era and the beginning of a new order.