📊 ETH/USDT 4H Technical Analysis - Bottoming or Gradually Forming, News Catalysis is Key

1. Trend Structure and Moving Average Patterns

The price has been declining unilaterally from the previous high of 3,403.70 USDT, finding support at 2,863.86 USDT and entering a correction phase. Currently, the price stabilizes above the 2,956.31 USDT level. The short-term MA5 and MA10 form a golden cross, and the price is above the short-term moving averages, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is temporarily dominant; however, the MA20, MA30, MA50, and MA100 remain in a bearish arrangement, with the price constrained by the MA20 (2,969.92 USDT). Medium-term downward pressure persists, and the correction has entered a consolidation phase.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Capital Flows

Recently, during the consolidation phase, trading volume has decreased compared to the rebound period. The volume moving average has turned downward in sync, indicating reduced willingness of market funds to absorb positions. The bulls and bears are in a stalemate. Currently, there is no panic selling volume, suggesting selling pressure has eased, but volume has not expanded significantly. Future focus should be on the direction after the volume consolidates; if volume breaks support with increased selling, the downside risk will further intensify.

3. Multi-Dimensional Technical Indicator Validation

• MACD: DIF and DEA are closely aligned below the zero line. After the green bars narrow, red bars appear, indicating a short-term rebound in bullish momentum. However, the indicator has not yet broken above zero, remaining a weak signal. A trend reversal requires the MACD to effectively cross above zero and for the red bars to continue expanding.

• RSI: Currently at 38.55, in a neutral to slightly weak zone, not yet entering overbought or oversold territory. Short-term oscillations still have potential space, with no clear signs of momentum exhaustion. Watch for an upward turn in the RSI; if it encounters resistance near the 50 level and falls back, a phase correction is likely.

4. Key Price Levels and Market Battles

Resistance Levels

1. 2,969.92 USDT: The MA20 resistance, serving as the first key barrier for short-term rebounds. Effective breakthrough requires volume support; without volume, upward attempts are likely to face resistance and fall back.

2. 3,150.77 USDT: The MA100 resistance, a core point for medium-term trend reversal. A volume-supported stabilization above this level would ease medium-term bearish pressure and open further upside space.

Support Levels

1. 2,956.34 USDT: The MA5 support, also the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. An important short-term defensive level for bulls; a break below would weaken the correction trend, trigger short-term long exits, and cause the price to revert to weakness and consolidation.

2. 2,863.86 USDT: The previous low and the starting point of this correction rally, representing a short-term trend watershed. A confirmed break below this level would mean the correction has failed, and the price would resume its decline.

Overall, ETH/USDT on the 4-hour chart is in a consolidation phase after an oversold correction. The bullish and bearish forces are temporarily balanced, but medium-term downward pressure remains. The key to future movement depends on whether the volume can break through the 2,969.92 USDT resistance and the strength of support below. The combination of volume and price action will be crucial for the continuation of the trend.#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁